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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
40/100
Dalio Risk ?
48/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$22.1
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Valuation
Potential?
+24.7%
ROIC ?
6.4%
DCF Value ?
29.41
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
4611
2008-05-07 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%27.4
VaR 95% ?
%2.77
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.95
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.64
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%18.4
24.02.2026 → 02.04.2026
Skewness ?
0.42
Parametrik%2.77
Historik%2.51
Cornish-Fisher%2.47
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (32.59), TRAMA-99 line's %8.8 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 32.59
TRAMA: 29.9434
Difference: %+8.8
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%15.4
Net profit margin %15.4 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +2.2 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%2.6
ROE %2.6 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%28.9
EBITDA margin %28.9 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%54.3
Gross profit per revenue %54.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%9.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %9.9'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.2x
Sector: 26.2x
F/K 28.2x — sector median's (26.2x) %8 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
1.76x
Sector: 3.91x
PD/DD 1.76x — sector median's (3.91x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
17.2x
Sector: 15.7x
EV/EBITDA 17.2x — sector median's (15.7x) %10 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.62x
Current ratio 0.62x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.9x
Net Borç/EBITDA 4.9x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
0.69x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.69x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
6.4x
Interest coverage 6.4x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+10.7
Revenue YoY %10.7 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+7.5
Net profit YoY %7.5 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
60/100
Good robustness (60/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+24.7%
Plus %24.7 expected value (40.88) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 43.06 | P/B target: 74.32 | EV/EBITDA target: 29.94 | DCF target: 29.41
Damodaran Valuation
40/100
Low Damodaran score (40/100). ROIC (%6.4) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
48/100
High debt risk (48/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.4x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 4.9x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 48/100 | Debt Service: 66/100 | Quality: 76/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%6.4
ROIC (%6.4) cost of capitaln (6.9%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %6.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
29.41
DCF (29.41) current price %10.3 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 32.79
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$22.1
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %32.6 üzerinde ($22.1) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
28.2x
vs 26.2x
Sector mediannın %8 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.76x
vs 3.91x
Compared to sector %55 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
17.2x
vs 15.7x
Compared to sector %10 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%6.4
vs %6.9 WACC
ROIC 0.6 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%9.8
vs %22.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %9.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.