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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
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The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
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Dalio Risk ?
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Piotroski ?
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Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Graham ?
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Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Lothien Robustness Summary
60/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (60/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ₺71M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+121.8 arttı (₺32M → ₺71M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+238.4 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-6.4 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.29x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (₺120M) kârın %169'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 72.3. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 7.06. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 19.0. Pahalı değerleme.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 29/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı zayıf görünüyor.
Reel Kâr Büyümesi Var
Enflasyon düzeltmesi sonrası reel net kâr %+107.3 arttı. Gerçek anlamda büyüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-48.7 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date date not measured Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
date not measured
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Valuation
Potential?
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Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+121.8 artarak 71.0M TL oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+238.4
Hasılat çeyreklik %+10.7 büyüdü (646.5M TL)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-6.4)
Brüt kâr marjı: %29.1
Brüt marj değişimi: %+2.0 puan
Net kâr marjı: %11.0
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+18.8 büyüdü (188.2M TL)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %29.1
Toplam borç %+10.3 arttı → 2.2B TL
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 2.1B TL
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 1.36x
Cari oran: 1.33x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-14.0 azaldı → 114.1M TL
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 200.2M TL
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 119.9M TL
ROE düşük: %4.3
ROA düşük: %1.5
Toplam varlıklar %+5.2 büyüdü → 4.7B TL
Özkaynak %+11.8 arttı → 1.6B TL
İşletme kârı pozitif: 154.7M TL
Ödenmiş sermaye: 220.0M TL
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 830.0M TL
CAPEX: 80.2M TL (Hasılatın %12.4'i)
Son 3 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %+0.0
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 52.50 TL
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %72'i
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit +107.3% (inflation-adjusted) — genuine growth
Real equity eroded 48% over last 8 quarters — value loss vs inflation
Yıllık %32 enflasyona rağmen reel büyüme devam ediyor
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/6 | %32 | ×1.00 | ₺71M | ₺71M | %+107.3 | ₺647M | ₺647M | %17.4 |
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺32M | ₺34M | %-63.5 | ₺584M | ₺625M | %8.8 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺80M | ₺94M | %+232.8 | ₺2.4B | ₺2.8B | %20.7 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺-23M | ₺-28M | %-201.6 | ₺-1.3B | ₺-1.6B | — |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺21M | ₺28M | %+917.1 | ₺691M | ₺913M | — |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺2M | ₺3M | — | ₺595M | ₺834M | — |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023/12 | %65 | ×2.23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%11.0
Net profit margin %11.0 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +5.5 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%10.3
ROE %10.3 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%29.1
EBITDA margin %29.1 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%29.1
Gross profit per revenue %29.1. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%8.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %8.6'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
72.3x
Sector: 28.4x
F/K 72.3x — sector median's (28.4x) %155 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
7.06x
Sector: 2.87x
PD/DD 7.06x — sector median's %146 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
19.0x
Sector: 9.4x
EV/EBITDA 19.0x — sector median's (9.4x) %101 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.33x
Current ratio 1.33x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.1x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
1.36x
Debt/Equity 1.36x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
1.0x
Interest coverage 1.0x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-6.4
Revenue YoY %-6.4 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+238.4
Net profit YoY %238.4 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
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Weak robustness (29/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Potential
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Minus %38.9 expected value (32.10) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 28.25 | P/B target: 21.80 | EV/EBITDA target: 26.11 | DCF target: 18.55
Damodaran Valuation
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Low Damodaran score (21/100). ROIC (%11.5) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
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High debt risk (49/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.0x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 3.1x — manageable.
Leverage: 64/100 | Debt Service: 46/100 | Quality: 67/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%11.5
ROIC (%11.5) cost of capital (40.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %40.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
18.55
DCF (18.55) current price %64.7 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 52.50
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
72.3x
vs 28.4x
Sector median's %155 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
7.06x
vs 2.87x
Compared to sector %146 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
19.0x
vs 9.4x
Compared to sector %101 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%11.5
vs %40.8 WACC
ROIC 29.3 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.7
vs %30.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.7
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (52.50), TRAMA-99 line (52.50) at close levels (%+0.0). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 52.50
TRAMA: 52.50
Difference: %+0.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.