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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
31/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
9/100
Dalio Risk ?
55/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Current ratio data missing (C6); gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); Banka/finans: kaldıraç/cari-oran/marj kriterleri uygulanamaz, skor kalan kriterlere göre normalize edildi
Graham ?
₺33.3
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Lothien Robustness Summary
38/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (38/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ₺9.6B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-52.9 geriledi (₺20.5B → ₺9.6B). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-46.1 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (₺9.6B) ama FCF negatif (-₺26.6B). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 21544.40. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Reel Kâr Eriyor
Enflasyon düzeltmesi sonrası reel kâr %-56.0 düştü. Nominal artış enflasyonu karşılamıyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+88.3 artabilir (₺9.6B → ₺18.1B).
Data date 2026-10-28 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-28
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%47.6
VaR 95% ?
%5.02
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.06
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.81
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%35.1
01.07.2026 → 27.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.42
Parametrik%5.02
Historik%4.41
Cornish-Fisher%4.47
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-48.0%
ROIC ?
0.0%
DCF Value ?
18.66
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-52.9 düşerek 9.6B TL oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-46.1 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+9.8 büyüdü (126.7B TL)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+30.7)
Net kâr marjı: %7.6
Toplam borç: 1,344.8B TL
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 247.5B TL
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 2.96x
Nakit ve benzerleri: 1,097.3B TL
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -24.3B TL
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -26.6B TL — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %2.1
ROA düşük: %0.2
Toplam varlıklar: 6,011.5B TL (%+4.0)
Özkaynak %+7.8 arttı → 454.0B TL
İşletme kârı negatif: -11,371 TL — faaliyet zararı
Faiz gideri: 203.3B TL
Ödenmiş sermaye: 25.0B TL
CAPEX: 2.3B TL (Hasılatın %1.8'i)
Son 8 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-23.4 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 510824.02 TL
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 56.0% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Reel özkaynak son 40 çeyrekte %12445924 arttı — gerçek sermaye birikimi
Yıllık %32 enflasyona rağmen reel büyüme devam ediyor
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/6 | %32 | ×1.00 | ₺9.6B | ₺9.6B | %-56.0 | ₺126.7B | ₺126.7B | %8.5 |
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺20.5B | ₺21.9B | %-21.7 | ₺115.4B | ₺123.5B | %19.4 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺23.7B | ₺28.0B | %+61.5 | ₺135.9B | ₺160.0B | %22.2 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺14.1B | ₺17.3B | %-26.7 | ₺143.3B | ₺176.1B | %14.8 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺17.9B | ₺23.6B | %+38.5 | ₺96.9B | ₺128.1B | %19.8 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺12.2B | ₺17.0B | %+87993907.6 | ₺54,140 | ₺75,821 | %14.9 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺12,566 | ₺19,369 | %+84.2 | ₺46,423 | ₺71,556 | %13.6 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺6,419 | ₺10,515 | %-66.4 | ₺40,300 | ₺66,013 | %7.6 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%7.6
Net profit margin %7.6 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -10.1 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%15.5
ROE %15.5 — moderate return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%28.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %28.0'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.0x
Sector: 22.4x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (22.4x) %346 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
21544.40x
Sector: 1.88x
PD/DD 21544.40x — sector median's %1145878 above. Expensive book value.
Indebtedness
Debt / Equity
2.96x
Debt/Equity 2.96x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+30.7
Revenue YoY %30.7 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-46.1
Net profit YoY %-46.1 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 11.9B). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 7.0B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
31/100
Weak robustness (31/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-48.0%
Minus %48.0 expected value (203468.20) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %64.
Components: PE target: 97821.25 | P/B target: 97821.25 | DCF target: 97821.25
Damodaran Valuation
9/100
Low Damodaran score (9/100). ROIC (%0.0) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
55/100
Moderate debt risk (55/100).
Leverage: 26/100 | Debt Service: 50/100 | Quality: 66/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%0.0
ROIC (%0.0) cost of capital (40.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %40.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
18.66
DCF (18.66) current price %100.0 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 391285.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Current ratio data missing (C6)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺33.3
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x
vs 22.4x
Sector median's %346 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
21544.40x
vs 1.88x
Compared to sector %1145878 more expensive (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%0.0
vs %40.0 WACC
ROIC 40.0 bps below cost of capital
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (391285.00), TRAMA-99 line's %23.4 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 391285.00
TRAMA: 510824.02
Difference: %-23.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ KAP alım ·
▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.