/
Login
Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
23/100
Dalio Risk ?
29/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -6.3298 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
59%
Valuation
Potential?
+14.2%
ROIC ?
0.8%
DCF Value ?
13.22
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
16277
1962-01-02 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%42.9
VaR 95% ?
%4.52
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.36
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.22
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%40.3
11.02.2026 → 19.05.2026
Skewness ?
0.05
Parametrik%4.52
Historik%3.96
Cornish-Fisher%4.27
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (36.30), TRAMA-99 line's %16.8 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 36.3
TRAMA: 43.6309
Difference: %-16.8
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%1.0
Net profit margin %1.0 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +40.7 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-23.1
ROE %-23.1 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%12.0
EBITDA margin %12.0 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%28.9
Gross profit per revenue %28.9. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%2.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %2.2'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
1.31x
Sector: 3.89x
PD/DD 1.31x — sector median's (3.89x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
88.5x
Sector: 16.4x
EV/EBITDA 88.5x — sector median's (16.4x) %438 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.21x
Current ratio 1.21x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
30.4x
Net Borç/EBITDA 30.4x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.64x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.64x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
0.5x
Interest coverage 0.5x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+13.4
Revenue YoY %13.4 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+157.1
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/3). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
46/100
Moderate robustness (46/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+14.2%
Plus %14.2 expected value (41.98) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %59.
Components: P/B target: 107.92 | EV/EBITDA target: 9.19 | DCF target: 13.22
Damodaran Valuation
23/100
Low Damodaran score (23/100). ROIC (%0.8) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
29/100
High debt risk (29/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.5x — weak, fragile. Borç/EBITDA 30.4x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 42/100 | Debt Service: 37/100 | Quality: 18/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%0.8
ROIC (%0.8) cost of capitaln (8.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
13.22
DCF (13.22) current price %64.0 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 36.77
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -6.3298 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.31x
vs 3.89x
Compared to sector %66 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
88.5x
vs 16.4x
Compared to sector %438 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%0.8
vs %8.6 WACC
ROIC 7.8 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-13.4
vs %1.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-13.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
IP — Participation Finance Compliance
Loading…
The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.