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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
36/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
45/100
Dalio Risk ?
80/100
Piotroski ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Graham ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
69%
Lothien Robustness Summary
16/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (16/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 6 | Nötr: 2
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -₺83M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%-1.9). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-201.9 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
5 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 5 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-9.9 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından ₺26M fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.30x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+189.7 arttı (-₺168M → ₺150M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 13.26. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-58.7. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+167.3 artabilir (-₺83M → ₺56M).
Data date 2026-10-28 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-28
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%61.5
VaR 95% ?
%6.59
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%9.23
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.80
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%60.8
24.07.2026 → 26.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.26
Parametrik%6.59
Historik%6.25
Cornish-Fisher%6.22
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-33.5%
ROIC ?
267.4%
DCF Value ?
43.43
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr %-152.3 geriledi
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-34.0)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %65.5
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-36.3 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %65.5
Toplam borç %-18.6 azaldı → 11.3M TL
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -25.7M TL (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.11x
Cari oran < 1: 0.30x — likidite riski
Nakit %+31.9 arttı → 37.0M TL
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 69.5M TL
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 9.0M TL
ROE negatif: %-83.0 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-6.8
Toplam varlıklar: 1.2B TL (%-1.8)
Özkaynak %-45.4 azaldı → 100.4M TL
İşletme kârı pozitif: 5.9M TL
Ödenmiş sermaye: 8.0M TL
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -508.4M TL — kısa vadeli baskı
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-13.4
Yoğun yatırım dönemi: CAPEX/Hasılat %28.1 (64.5M TL)
Son 2 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-26.4 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 226.06 TL
Sabit varlık ağırlıklı bilanço: Dönen varlıklar %18
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Reel ROE %-332.1 — enflasyon düzeltmesinden sonra zarar
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/6 | %32 | ×1.00 | ₺-83M | ₺-83M | — | ₺230M | ₺230M | %-332.1 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺-82M | ₺-101M | %-193.0 | — | — | — |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺82M | ₺108M | %-56.0 | ₺255M | ₺337M | %107.7 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺159M | ₺246M | %-28.4 | ₺348M | ₺536M | %234.8 |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺192M | ₺343M | %+2332.3 | ₺115M | ₺206M | %355.3 |
| 2023/12 | %65 | ×2.23 | ₺6M | ₺14M | %-75.1 | ₺73M | ₺162M | %29.6 |
| 2023/6 | %38 | ×3.06 | ₺18M | ₺57M | — | ₺22M | ₺68M | %146.1 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-36.3
Net profit margin %-36.3 — loss period.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-166.1
ROE %-166.1 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%65.5
EBITDA margin %65.5 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%65.5
Gross profit per revenue %65.5. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%6.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %6.5'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
13.26x
Sector: 1.88x
PD/DD 13.26x — sector median's %605 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
6.5x
Sector: 6.4x
EV/EBITDA 6.5x — sector median's (6.4x) %2 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.30x
Current ratio 0.30x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.11x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
55.4x
Interest coverage 55.4x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-9.9
Revenue YoY %-9.9 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-201.9
Net profit YoY %-201.9 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 82.8M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 42.0M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
36/100
Weak robustness (36/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-33.5%
Minus %33.5 expected value (110.57) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %69.
Components: P/B target: 41.58 | EV/EBITDA target: 163.16 | DCF target: 43.43
Damodaran Valuation
45/100
Low Damodaran score (45/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
80/100
Low debt risk (80/100). Interest coverage ratio 55.4x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 98/100 | Debt Service: 58/100 | Quality: 69/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%267.4
ROIC (%267.4) cost of capital 221.6 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %45.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
43.43
DCF (43.43) current price %73.9 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 166.30
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
13.26x
vs 1.88x
Compared to sector %605 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
6.5x
vs 6.4x
Compared to sector %2 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%267.4
vs %45.8 WACC
ROIC 221.6 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%36.9
vs %21.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %36.9
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (166.30), TRAMA-99 line's %26.4 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 166.30
TRAMA: 226.06
Difference: %-26.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.