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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
51/100
Dalio Risk ?
50/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Graham ?
$109.5
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Valuation
Potential?
+18.2%
ROIC ?
2.8%
DCF Value ?
453.23
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
8116
1994-06-07 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Düşük
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%19.2
VaR 95% ?
%1.96
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%2.79
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.84
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%10.9
09.09.2025 → 27.03.2026
Skewness ?
-0.34
Parametrik%1.96
Historik%2.00
Cornish-Fisher%2.04
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (277.29), TRAMA-99 line (286.54) at close levels (%-3.2). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 277.29
TRAMA: 286.5434
Difference: %-3.2
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%12.8
Net profit margin %12.8 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter -9.1 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%7.7
ROE %7.7 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%58.9
EBITDA margin %58.9 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%68.4
Gross profit per revenue %68.4. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%51.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %51.4'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
43.2x
Sector: 32.3x
F/K 43.2x — sector median's (32.3x) %34 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
3.36x
Sector: 3.83x
PD/DD 3.36x — sector median (3.83x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
Sector: 17.3x
EV/EBITDA 18.7x — sector median's (17.3x) %8 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.31x
Current ratio 0.31x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.1x
Net Borç/EBITDA 5.1x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
1.27x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.27x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
5.1x
Interest coverage 5.1x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+4.1
Revenue YoY %4.1 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-71.8
Net profit YoY %-71.8 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
57/100
Good robustness (57/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+18.2%
Plus %18.2 expected value (328.37) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %64.
Components: P/B target: 326.20 | EV/EBITDA target: 256.77 | DCF target: 453.23
Damodaran Valuation
51/100
Moderate Damodaran score (51/100). ROIC (%2.8) – WACC (%7.1) farkı -4.3 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
50/100
Moderate debt risk (50/100). Interest coverage ratio 5.1x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 5.1x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 66/100 | Debt Service: 52/100 | Quality: 84/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%2.8
ROIC (%2.8) cost of capitaln (7.1%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
453.23
DCF modeli 453.23 target value produced — compared to current price %63.1 undervalued.
Current price: 277.89
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$109.5
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %60.6 üzerinde ($109.5) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
43.2x
vs 32.3x
Sector mediannın %34 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
3.36x
vs 3.83x
Compared to sector %12 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
vs 17.3x
Compared to sector %8 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%2.8
vs %7.1 WACC
ROIC 4.3 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%21.5
vs %68.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %21.5
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.