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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
12/100
Dalio Risk ?
92/100
Piotroski ?
N/A
Yetersiz çeyrek verisi: 4 mevcut, en az 5 gerekli
Graham ?
₺3.0
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
-56.2%
ROIC ?
8.9%
DCF Value ?
0.42
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
3555
2012-10-12 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%60.3
VaR 95% ?
%6.22
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.81
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.64
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%46.6
10.09.2025 → 09.07.2026
Skewness ?
0.41
Parametrik%6.22
Historik%5.53
Cornish-Fisher%5.71
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 16.9% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 16.9% — insufficient pricing power
Real equity eroded 24% over last 4 quarters — value loss vs inflation
Yıllık %36 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/12 | %36 | ×6.02 | ₺626,095 | ₺4M | %-16.9 | ₺5M | ₺31M | %13.7 |
| 2021/9 | %20 | ×7.25 | ₺626,095 | ₺5M | %-4.1 | ₺5M | ₺38M | %13.7 |
| 2021/6 | %18 | ×7.56 | ₺626,095 | ₺5M | %-4.4 | ₺5M | ₺39M | %13.7 |
| 2021/3 | %16 | ×7.90 | ₺626,095 | ₺5M | — | ₺5M | ₺41M | %13.7 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (27.50), TRAMA-99 line (27.89) at close levels (%-1.4). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 27.5
TRAMA: 27.894
Difference: %-1.4
Profitability
No balance sheet data
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.0x
Sector: 17.1x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (17.1x) %485 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
15.51x
Sector: 1.48x
PD/DD 15.51x — sector median's %948 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
98.4x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 98.4x — sector median's (7.6x) %1200 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Debt / Equity
0.00x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Growth
No balance sheet data
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
23/100
Very weak robustness (23/100). Multiple critical indicators are red: high debt, low profitability or excessive valuation.
Very Weak
Potential
-56.2%
Minus %56.2 expected value (11.64) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 6.65 | P/B target: 6.65 | EV/EBITDA target: 6.65 | DCF target: 6.65
Damodaran Valuation
12/100
Low Damodaran score (12/100). ROIC (%8.9) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
92/100
Low debt risk (92/100).
Leverage: 100/100 | Debt Service: 50/100 | Quality: 81/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%8.9
ROIC (%8.9) cost of capitaln (45.5%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %45.5
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
0.42
DCF (0.42) current price %98.4 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 26.60
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Yetersiz çeyrek verisi: 4 mevcut, en az 5 gerekli
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺3.0
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %88.7 üzerinde (₺3.0) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x
vs 17.1x
Sector mediannın %485 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
15.51x
vs 1.48x
Compared to sector %948 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
98.4x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %1200 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%8.9
vs %45.5 WACC
ROIC 36.6 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ KAP alım ·
▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
DIRIT — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.