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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
32/100
Dalio Risk ?
49/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$81.4
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Valuation
Potential?
-12.9%
ROIC ?
10.1%
DCF Value ?
94.97
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
3250
2013-10-02 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%39.1
VaR 95% ?
%4.07
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.75
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.72
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%31.2
29.07.2026 → 02.09.2026
Skewness ?
-0.40
Parametrik%4.07
Historik%3.92
Cornish-Fisher%4.19
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (257.07), TRAMA-99 line's %18.4 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 257.07
TRAMA: 314.8734
Difference: %-18.4
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.0
Net profit margin %4.0 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -4.5 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%23.3
ROE %23.3 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%9.2
EBITDA margin %9.2 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%44.2
Gross profit per revenue %44.2. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%4.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %4.1'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.1x
Sector: 29.6x
F/K 19.1x — sector median's (29.6x) %35 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
8.86x
Sector: 4.58x
PD/DD 8.86x — sector median's %93 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
16.1x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 16.1x — sector median's (15.6x) %3 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.16x
Current ratio 1.16x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.4x
Net Borç/EBITDA 4.4x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
3.20x
Borç/Özkaynak 3.20x — very high leverage.
Interest Coverage
18.0x
Interest coverage 18.0x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
No balance sheet data
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
47/100
Moderate robustness (47/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-12.9%
Minus %12.9 expected value (225.41) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 304.72 | P/B target: 142.38 | EV/EBITDA target: 251.54 | DCF target: 94.97
Damodaran Valuation
32/100
Low Damodaran score (32/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
49/100
High debt risk (49/100). Interest coverage ratio 18.0x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 4.4x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 6/100 | Debt Service: 79/100 | Quality: 83/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%10.1
ROIC (%10.1) slightly exceeds cost of capital (2.0 puan) aşıyor.
WACC: %8.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
94.97
DCF (94.97) current price %63.3 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 258.94
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$81.4
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %68.6 üzerinde ($81.4) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
19.1x
vs 29.6x
Sector mediannın %35 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
8.86x
vs 4.58x
Compared to sector %93 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
16.1x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %3 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%10.1
vs %8.1 WACC
ROIC 2.0 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%5.3
vs %11.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %5.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.