/
Login
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
54/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
55/100
Dalio Risk ?
33/100
Piotroski ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Graham ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Lothien Robustness Summary
77/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (77/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 9 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ₺619M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+983.9 arttı (-₺70M → ₺619M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+216.1 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+64.3 arttı (₺5.0B → ₺8.3B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+53.5 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Yüksek Borçluluk
Net borç/özkaynak oranı 3.17x. Yüksek kaldıraç risk taşır, faiz yükü ağır olabilir.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (₺869M) kârın %140'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+55.6 arttı (₺846M → ₺1.3B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-3.1. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+20.6 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%63.1
VaR 95% ?
%6.88
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%9.59
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.71
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%70.4
24.10.2025 → 18.09.2026
Skewness ?
0.42
Parametrik%6.88
Historik%6.18
Cornish-Fisher%6.30
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+43.4%
ROIC ?
12.3%
DCF Value ?
20.58
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2025/12
Toplam borç: 14.3B TL
Net borç: 14.0B TL
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 2.38x
Cari oran: 1.07x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-16.3 azaldı → 288.8M TL
Toplam varlıklar %+15.7 büyüdü → 31.1B TL
Özkaynak %+36.8 arttı → 6.0B TL
Ödenmiş sermaye: 1.1B TL
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 1.6B TL
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-13.0
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-27.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 9.99 TL
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %77'i
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Reel özkaynak son 12 çeyrekte %55 arttı — gerçek sermaye birikimi
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺619M | ₺761M | %+722.2 | ₺8.3B | ₺10.2B | %56.3 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-70M | ₺-93M | %-109.3 | ₺5.0B | ₺6.7B | %-7.7 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-710M | ₺-994M | %-167.4 | ₺1.9B | ₺2.7B | %-75.3 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺957M | ₺1.5B | %+68.8 | ₺9.0B | ₺13.9B | %67.8 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-533M | ₺-874M | %-656.4 | ₺5.4B | ₺8.8B | %-108.4 |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺-88M | ₺-157M | %-127.8 | ₺5.0B | ₺8.9B | — |
| 2024/3 | %68 | ×1.93 | ₺292M | ₺564M | — | ₺3.6B | ₺6.9B | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%7.5
Net profit margin %7.5 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +8.9 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-4.0
ROE %-4.0 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%15.9
EBITDA margin %15.9 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%15.9
Gross profit per revenue %15.9. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-30.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-30.3'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
1.34x
Sector: 1.89x
PD/DD 1.34x — sector median (1.89x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
7.6x
Sector: 6.5x
EV/EBITDA 7.6x — sector median's (6.5x) %17 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.07x
Current ratio 1.07x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.9x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.9x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
2.38x
Debt/Equity 2.38x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
0.6x
Interest coverage 0.6x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+53.5
Revenue YoY %53.5 grew (2025/9) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+216.1
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2025/9). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
54/100
Moderate robustness (54/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+43.4%
Plus %43.4 expected value (10.37) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %64.
Components: P/B target: 11.37 | EV/EBITDA target: 6.16 | DCF target: 20.58
Damodaran Valuation
55/100
Moderate Damodaran score (55/100). ROIC (%12.3) – WACC (%31.2) difference -18.9 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
33/100
High debt risk (33/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.6x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 4.9x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 40/100 | Debt Service: 35/100 | Quality: 45/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%12.3
ROIC (%12.3) cost of capital (31.2%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %31.2
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
20.58
DCF modeli 20.58 target value produced — compared to current price %184.7 undervalued.
Current price: 7.23
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.34x
vs 1.89x
Compared to sector %29 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
7.6x
vs 6.5x
Compared to sector %17 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%12.3
vs %31.2 WACC
ROIC 18.9 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%3.3
vs %12.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %3.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (7.23), TRAMA-99 line's %27.6 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 7.23
TRAMA: 9.99
Difference: %-27.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ KAP alım ·
▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
BALSU — Participation Finance Compliance
Loading…
The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.