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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
45/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır
Dalio Risk ?
79/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Current ratio data missing (C6); gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); Banka/finans: kaldıraç/cari-oran/marj kriterleri uygulanamaz, skor kalan kriterlere göre normalize edildi
Graham ?
$131.7
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Valuation
Potential?
-24.4%
DCF Value ?
198.27
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
13678
1972-06-01 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%26.7
VaR 95% ?
%2.74
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.89
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.17
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%24.1
11.12.2025 → 27.03.2026
Skewness ?
-0.54
Parametrik%2.74
Historik%2.44
Cornish-Fisher%2.86
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (329.98), TRAMA-99 line (331.01) at close levels (%-0.3). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 329.98
TRAMA: 331.0095
Difference: %-0.3
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%13.0
Net profit margin %13.0 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter -2.8 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%16.3
ROE %16.3 — moderate return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%22.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %22.2'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.5x
Sector: 20.4x
F/K 20.5x — sector median's (20.4x) %0 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
6.64x
Sector: 3.01x
PD/DD 6.64x — sector median's %120 above. Expensive book value.
Indebtedness
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.4x
Net Borç/EBITDA 2.4x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
1.73x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.73x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
3.0x
Interest coverage 3.0x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+10.5
Revenue YoY %10.5 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+13.5
Net profit YoY %13.5 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
51/100
Moderate robustness (51/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-24.4%
Minus %24.4 expected value (248.75) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %64.
Components: PE target: 330.69 | P/B target: 161.36 | DCF target: 198.27
Damodaran Valuation
45/100
Low Damodaran score (45/100). DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
79/100
Low debt risk (79/100). Interest coverage ratio 3.0x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 2.4x — manageable.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 62/100 | Quality: 100/100
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
198.27
DCF (198.27) current price %39.7 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 328.96
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Current ratio data missing (C6)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$131.7
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %60.0 üzerinde ($131.7) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
20.5x
vs 20.4x
Sector mediannın %0 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
6.64x
vs 3.01x
Compared to sector %120 more expensive (by book value)
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%15.0
vs %33.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %15.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
AXP — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.