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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
29/100
Dalio Risk ?
51/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.4987 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Valuation
Potential?
-31.0%
ROIC ?
7.4%
DCF Value ?
123.07
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
11712
1980-03-17 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%26.8
VaR 95% ?
%2.74
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.89
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.27
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%21.6
11.09.2025 → 09.12.2025
Skewness ?
0.57
Parametrik%2.74
Historik%2.16
Cornish-Fisher%2.17
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (309.45), TRAMA-99 line's %5.9 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 309.45
TRAMA: 292.3436
Difference: %+5.9
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%21.9
Net profit margin %21.9 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +21.7 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%4.5
ROE %4.5 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%41.1
EBITDA margin %41.1 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%32.1
Gross profit per revenue %32.1. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-23.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-23.0'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
4.48x
Sector: 3.89x
PD/DD 4.48x — sector median's (3.89x) %15 above.
EV/EBITDA
60.9x
Sector: 16.4x
EV/EBITDA 60.9x — sector median's (16.4x) %270 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.46x
Current ratio 1.46x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
12.8x
Net Borç/EBITDA 12.8x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
1.18x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.18x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
6.3x
Interest coverage 6.3x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+5.8
Revenue YoY %5.8 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+9.8
Net profit YoY %9.8 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
39/100
Weak robustness (39/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-31.0%
Minus %31.0 expected value (213.64) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %64.
Components: P/B target: 264.60 | EV/EBITDA target: 83.67 | DCF target: 123.07
Damodaran Valuation
29/100
Low Damodaran score (29/100). ROIC (%7.4) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
51/100
Moderate debt risk (51/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.3x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 12.8x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 35/100 | Debt Service: 86/100 | Quality: 56/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%7.4
ROIC (%7.4) cost of capitaln (8.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
123.07
DCF (123.07) current price %60.3 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 309.82
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.4987 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
4.48x
vs 3.89x
Compared to sector %15 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
60.9x
vs 16.4x
Compared to sector %270 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%7.4
vs %8.0 WACC
ROIC 0.6 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-2.7
vs %11.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-2.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ içeriden satım ·
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.