/
Login
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
72/100
Very Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
58/100
Dalio Risk ?
87/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$13.2
Ucuz
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
99/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (99/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 11 | Negatif: 0 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$393M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+45.0 arttı (HK$271M → HK$393M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+29.0 arttı (HK$2.4B → HK$3.1B). Talep güçlü.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$1.5B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 2.32x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+32.0 arttı (HK$351M → HK$463M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 7.7. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 1.00. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 5.3. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 72/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
168 days
Annual Volatility ?
%54.2
VaR 95% ?
%6.15
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.48
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.53
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%66.0
23.02.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
-0.02
Parametrik%6.15
Historik%5.80
Cornish-Fisher%6.07
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+27.5%
ROIC ?
18.2%
DCF Value ?
4.62
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+45.0 artarak 393.3M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi sınırlı (%+9.0)
Hasılat çeyreklik %+29.0 büyüdü (3.1B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+19.9)
Brüt kâr marjı: %28.6
Brüt marj değişimi: %-1.9 puan
Net kâr marjı: %12.8
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+32.0 büyüdü (462.8M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı: %15.1
Toplam borç %+13.1 arttı → 2.7B HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -1.5B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.25x
Cari oran güçlü: 2.32x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %+14.3 arttı → 4.2B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 1.3B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 184.7M HKD
ROE düşük: %3.6
ROA: %2.1
Toplam varlıklar %+5.8 büyüdü → 18.3B HKD
Özkaynak: 10.8B HKD (%+0.5)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 513.7M HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+38.0
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 31.0x (Faiz: 14.9M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 1.4B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 6.3B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+8.8
CAPEX: 315.4M HKD (Hasılatın %10.3'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-21.2 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 9.75 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%12.8
Net profit margin %12.8 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +1.4 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%9.7
ROE %9.7 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%15.1
EBITDA margin %15.1 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%28.6
Gross profit per revenue %28.6. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%2.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %2.3'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.7x
Sector: 12.3x
F/K 7.7x — sector median's (12.3x) %37 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
1.00x
Sector: 1.54x
PD/DD 1.00x — sector median's (1.54x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 5.3x — sector median's (7.6x) %30 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.32x
Current ratio 2.32x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.6x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
26.3x
Interest coverage 26.3x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+19.9
Revenue YoY %19.9 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+9.0
Net profit YoY %9.0 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
72/100
Very strong robustness score (72/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+27.5%
Plus %27.5 expected value (9.79) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 12.52 | P/B target: 12.24 | EV/EBITDA target: 11.03 | DCF target: 4.62
Damodaran Valuation
58/100
Moderate Damodaran score (58/100). ROIC (%18.2) – WACC (%9.8) difference +8.5 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
87/100
Low debt risk (87/100). Interest coverage ratio 26.3x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.6x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 87/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 88/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%18.2
ROIC (%18.2) cost of capital 8.5 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %9.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
4.62
DCF (4.62) current price %39.9 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 7.68
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$13.2
Graham intrinsic value: HK$13.2. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
7.7x
vs 12.3x
Sector median's %37 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.00x
vs 1.54x
Compared to sector %35 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %30 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%18.2
vs %9.8 WACC
ROIC 8.5 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%13.0
vs %16.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %13.0
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (7.68), TRAMA-99 line's %21.2 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 7.68
TRAMA: 9.75
Difference: %-21.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
9981 — Participation Finance Compliance
Loading…
The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.