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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
61/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
51/100
Dalio Risk ?
66/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$65.8
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
75/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (75/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$403M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+63.9 arttı (HK$246M → HK$403M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+57.0 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+56.9 arttı (HK$306M → HK$480M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 24.6. Pahalı değerleme.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%44.5
VaR 95% ?
%4.82
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.74
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.86
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%63.2
28.01.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.20
Parametrik%4.82
Historik%4.68
Cornish-Fisher%4.66
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+14.6%
ROIC ?
6.2%
DCF Value ?
242.88
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+63.9 artarak 403.1M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+57.0
Hasılat çeyreklik %+6.3 büyüdü (9.3B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+8.2)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %37.2
Net kâr marjı düşük: %4.3
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+56.9 büyüdü (479.7M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %5.2
Toplam borç: 11.2B HKD
Net borç: 5.1B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.60x
Cari oran: 1.32x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-21.7 azaldı → 6.1B HKD
ROE düşük: %2.2
ROA düşük: %0.8
Toplam varlıklar: 49.8B HKD (%+2.5)
Özkaynak: 18.7B HKD (%+2.0)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 437.3M HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+123.6
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 10.9x (Faiz: 44.0M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 418.5M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 8.0B HKD
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-22.2 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 136.51 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %66'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.3
Net profit margin %4.3 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +1.5 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%9.7
ROE %9.7 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%5.2
EBITDA margin %5.2 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%37.2
Gross profit per revenue %37.2. Evaluate relative to sector.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.7x
Sector: 18.5x
F/K 24.7x — sector median's (18.5x) %33 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
2.38x
Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 2.38x — sector median's (2.25x) %6 above.
EV/EBITDA
24.6x
Sector: 10.9x
EV/EBITDA 24.6x — sector median's (10.9x) %126 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.32x
Current ratio 1.32x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.5x
Net Debt/EBITDA 5.5x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.60x
Debt/Equity 0.60x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
10.8x
Interest coverage 10.8x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+8.2
Revenue YoY %8.2 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+57.0
Net profit YoY %57.0 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
61/100
Good robustness (61/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+14.6%
Plus %14.6 expected value (121.66) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 75.32 | P/B target: 103.02 | EV/EBITDA target: 46.95 | DCF target: 242.88
Damodaran Valuation
51/100
Moderate Damodaran score (51/100). ROIC (%6.2) – WACC (%9.8) difference -3.6 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
66/100
Moderate debt risk (66/100). Interest coverage ratio 10.8x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 5.5x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 35/100 | Debt Service: 83/100 | Quality: 75/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%6.2
ROIC (%6.2) cost of capital (9.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %9.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
242.88
DCF modeli 242.88 target value produced — compared to current price %128.7 undervalued.
Current price: 106.20
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$65.8
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
24.7x
vs 18.5x
Sector median's %33 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
2.38x
vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %6 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
24.6x
vs 10.9x
Compared to sector %126 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%6.2
vs %9.8 WACC
ROIC 3.6 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.9
vs %5.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.9
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (106.20), TRAMA-99 line's %22.2 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 106.20
TRAMA: 136.51
Difference: %-22.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
9626 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.