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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
33/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
20/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
87/100
Piotroski ?
1/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -2.1089 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
1/4
Confidence?
48%
Lothien Robustness Summary
22/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (22/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 7 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -NT$107M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-86.6 geriledi (-NT$58M → -NT$107M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Hasılat Geriledi
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %-82.5 düştü. Talep zayıflıyor veya mevsimsel etki var.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-71.7 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %-0.6 → %-1506.3 (-1505.8 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından NT$300M fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 135.76x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-108.1 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 6.24. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-2.2. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+16.0 artabilir (-NT$107M → -NT$90M).
Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-22
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%64.3
VaR 95% ?
%6.71
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%9.47
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.46
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%59.3
20.10.2025 → 19.05.2026
Skewness ?
0.58
Parametrik%6.71
Historik%5.62
Cornish-Fisher%5.98
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-18.6%
ROIC ?
-3.3%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-86.6 düşerek -107.4M TWD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-25.4 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %-82.5 düştü (504,000 TWD)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-71.7)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %-1506.3
Brüt marj değişimi: %-1505.8 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-21313.3 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-108.1 düştü (-93.0M TWD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %-18451.0
Toplam borç: 235.9M TWD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -300.5M TWD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.02x
Cari oran güçlü: 135.76x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %-75.7 azaldı → 536.3M TWD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -317.0M TWD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -326.4M TWD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE negatif: %-1.0 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-0.9
Toplam varlıklar: 11.5B TWD (%-1.5)
Özkaynak: 11.2B TWD (%-1.9)
İşletme kârı negatif: -142.3M TWD — faaliyet zararı
Faiz gideri: 1.4M TWD
Ödenmiş sermaye: 158.0M TWD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 10.0B TWD
Yoğun yatırım dönemi: CAPEX/Hasılat %1862.7 (9.4M TWD)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+2.8
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 418.86 TWD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %87'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-21313.3
Net profit margin %-21313.3 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -19317.5 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-2.2
ROE %-2.2 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%-18451.0
EBITDA margin %-18451.0 — operational loss.
Gross Profit Margin
%-1506.3
Gross profit per revenue %-1506.3. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-7895.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-7895.0'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
6.24x
Sector: 3.85x
PD/DD 6.24x — sector median's %62 above. Expensive book value.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
135.76x
Current ratio 135.76x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Debt / Equity
0.02x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
-121.0x
Interest coverage -121.0x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-71.7
Revenue YoY %-71.7 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-25.4
Loss %25.4 increased — losses deepening.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
33/100
Weak robustness (33/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-18.6%
Minus %18.6 expected value (358.18) vs current price comparison. 1/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %48.
Components: P/B target: 269.55
Damodaran Valuation
20/100
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
87/100
Low debt risk (87/100). Interest coverage ratio -121.0x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 99/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 36/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-3.3
ROIC (%-3.3) cost of capital (11.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %11.0
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Weak Piotroski (1/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -2.1089 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
6.24x
vs 3.85x
Compared to sector %62 more expensive (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%-3.3
vs %11.0 WACC
ROIC 14.3 bps below cost of capital
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (430.50), TRAMA-99 line (418.86) at close levels (%+2.8). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 430.50
TRAMA: 418.86
Difference: %+2.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
7799 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.