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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
39/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
40/100
Dalio Risk ?
96/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
NT$42.8
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
54/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (54/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 7 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte NT$53M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+229.0 arttı (NT$16M → NT$53M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %39.4 → %43.4 (+4.0 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından NT$2.2B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 4.33x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Borç Azalıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %-55.8 düştü. Bilanço güçleniyor.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (NT$53M) ama FCF negatif (-NT$28M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+76.9 arttı (NT$68M → NT$120M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 11.79. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 72.2. Pahalı değerleme.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-28.4 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-22
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%79.5
VaR 95% ?
%7.87
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%11.28
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.08
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%50.6
06.07.2026 → 30.07.2026
Skewness ?
0.64
Parametrik%7.87
Historik%7.60
Cornish-Fisher%6.83
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-55.0%
ROIC ?
29.9%
DCF Value ?
45.52
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+229.0 artarak 53.0M TWD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi sınırlı (%+9.8)
Hasılat çeyreklik %+13.1 büyüdü (472.4M TWD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+31.6)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %43.4
Brüt marj değişimi: %+4.0 puan
Net kâr marjı: %11.2
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+76.9 büyüdü (119.9M TWD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %25.4
Toplam borç %-55.8 azaldı → 176.8M TWD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -2.2B TWD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.06x
Cari oran güçlü: 4.33x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %-16.7 azaldı → 2.3B TWD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -2.6M TWD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -28.0M TWD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %1.9
ROA düşük: %1.3
Toplam varlıklar: 4.0B TWD (%-3.8)
Özkaynak: 2.8B TWD (%+1.0)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 93.4M TWD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+114.5
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 77.1x (Faiz: 1.6M TWD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 78.8M TWD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 2.8B TWD
CAPEX: 25.4M TWD (Hasılatın %5.4'i)
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+2.4
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 399.71 TWD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %91'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%11.2
Net profit margin %11.2 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +7.4 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%6.3
ROE %6.3 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%25.4
EBITDA margin %25.4 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%43.4
Gross profit per revenue %43.4. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-0.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-0.8'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.0x
Sector: 30.4x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (30.4x) %229 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
11.79x
Sector: 3.68x
PD/DD 11.79x — sector median's %220 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
72.2x
Sector: 16.6x
EV/EBITDA 72.2x — sector median's (16.6x) %336 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
4.33x
Current ratio 4.33x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.4x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.06x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
51.5x
Interest coverage 51.5x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+31.6
Revenue YoY %31.6 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+9.8
Net profit YoY %9.8 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
39/100
Weak robustness (39/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-55.0%
Minus %55.0 expected value (191.20) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 106.25 | P/B target: 134.33 | EV/EBITDA target: 106.25 | DCF target: 106.25
Damodaran Valuation
40/100
Low Damodaran score (40/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
96/100
Low debt risk (96/100). Interest coverage ratio 51.5x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.4x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 97/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 84/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%29.9
ROIC (%29.9) cost of capital 17.9 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %12.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
45.52
DCF (45.52) current price %89.3 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 425.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
NT$42.8
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x
vs 30.4x
Sector median's %229 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
11.79x
vs 3.68x
Compared to sector %220 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
72.2x
vs 16.6x
Compared to sector %336 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%29.9
vs %12.0 WACC
ROIC 17.9 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%9.2
vs %22.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %9.2
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (409.50), TRAMA-99 line (399.71) at close levels (%+2.4). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 409.50
TRAMA: 399.71
Difference: %+2.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
7795 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.