7781

🇹🇼 Tayvan Borsası
21.90
TWD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
19/100
Very Weak
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
10/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
32/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.4391 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
1/4
Confidence?
43%
Lothien Robustness Summary
18/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (18/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 4 | Negatif: 7 | Nötr: 2
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -NT$238M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-278.0 geriledi (-NT$63M → -NT$238M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-278.0 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+321.8 arttı (NT$180M → NT$758M). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+321.8 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %25.7 → %16.1 (-9.6 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.05x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-328.9 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 48.89. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-135.1. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 19/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı zayıf görünüyor.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+17.3 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+79.4 artabilir (-NT$238M → -NT$49M).

Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-22
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%125.4
VaR 95% ?
%12.22
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%17.61
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.43
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%34.6
19.03.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
5.16
Parametrik%12.22
Historik%5.17
Cornish-Fisher%-9.00
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-32.3%
ROIC ?
-43.7%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr %-278.0 geriledi
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+321.8)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %16.1
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-31.3 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %-29.2
Toplam borç: 442.6M TWD
Net borç: 304.0M TWD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 1.52x
Cari oran < 1: 0.96x — likidite riski
Nakit ve benzerleri: 138.6M TWD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -88.5M TWD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -107.9M TWD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE negatif: %-81.8 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-24.7
Ödenmiş sermaye: 585.1M TWD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -21.2M TWD — kısa vadeli baskı
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+7.7 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 20.34 TWD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %-31.3
Net profit margin %-31.3 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +3.6 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %-135.1
ROE %-135.1 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %-29.2
EBITDA margin %-29.2 — operational loss.
Gross Profit Margin %16.1
Gross profit per revenue %16.1. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %-22.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-22.1'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio 48.89x Sector: 3.45x
PD/DD 48.89x — sector median's %1317 above. Expensive book value.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 0.96x
Current ratio 0.96x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Debt / Equity 1.52x
Debt/Equity 1.52x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage -59.2x
Interest coverage -59.2x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+321.8
Revenue YoY %321.8 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-278.0
Loss %278.0 increased — losses deepening.
Seasonality Analysis Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit -85.7M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit -136.3M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
19/100
Very weak robustness (19/100). Multiple critical indicators are red: high debt, low profitability or excessive valuation.
Very Weak
Potential
-32.3%
Minus %32.3 expected value (15.14) vs current price comparison. 1/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %43.
Components: P/B target: 5.59
Damodaran Valuation
10/100
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
32/100
High debt risk (32/100). Interest coverage ratio -59.2x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 24/100 | Debt Service: 48/100 | Quality: 20/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-43.7
ROIC (%-43.7) cost of capital (14.3%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %14.3
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.4391 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
48.89x vs 3.45x
Compared to sector %1317 more expensive (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%-43.7 vs %14.3 WACC
ROIC 58.0 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-32.8 vs %-29.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-32.8
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (21.90), TRAMA-99 line's %7.7 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 21.90
TRAMA: 20.34
Difference: %+7.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
7781 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.