/
Login
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
68/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
61/100
Dalio Risk ?
69/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$36.8
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
59/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (59/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 0 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$3.5B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+17.8). İstikrarlı seyir.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (HK$5.4B) kârın %154'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 11.6. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%22.9
VaR 95% ?
%2.47
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.46
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.36
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%27.2
28.10.2025 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
-0.00
Parametrik%2.47
Historik%2.35
Cornish-Fisher%2.41
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+40.9%
ROIC ?
9.3%
DCF Value ?
116.45
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+17.8 artarak 3.5B HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-15.1 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+9.7 büyüdü (95.3B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%+5.7)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %13.2
Net kâr marjı düşük: %3.7
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+21.4 büyüdü (5.5B HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %5.8
Toplam borç %+17.2 arttı → 64.6B HKD
Net borç: 33.7B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.54x
Cari oran: 1.19x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+55.1 arttı → 30.9B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 25.8B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 5.4B HKD
ROE düşük: %2.9
ROA düşük: %1.3
Toplam varlıklar %+7.1 büyüdü → 268.1B HKD
Özkaynak: 120.4B HKD (%+2.4)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 5.1B HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+14.4
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 12.0x (Faiz: 457.8M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 5.3B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 18.3B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-20.0
CAPEX: 3.8B HKD (Hasılatın %4.0'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-12.7 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 32.62 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%3.7
Net profit margin %3.7 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.3 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%8.2
ROE %8.2 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%5.8
EBITDA margin %5.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%13.2
Gross profit per revenue %13.2. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%5.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %5.4'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.6x
Sector: 10.2x
F/K 11.6x — sector median's (10.2x) %13 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
1.25x
Sector: 1.13x
PD/DD 1.25x — sector median's (1.13x) %10 above.
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
Sector: 8.6x
EV/EBITDA 9.4x — sector median's (8.6x) %10 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.19x
Current ratio 1.19x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.3x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.3x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
0.54x
Debt/Equity 0.54x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
10.4x
Interest coverage 10.4x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+5.7
Revenue YoY %5.7 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-15.1
Net profit YoY %-15.1 declined — profitability under pressure.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
68/100
Good robustness (68/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+40.9%
Plus %40.9 expected value (40.12) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 26.42 | P/B target: 26.61 | EV/EBITDA target: 25.99 | DCF target: 85.44
Damodaran Valuation
61/100
Moderate Damodaran score (61/100). ROIC (%9.3) – WACC (%7.8) difference +1.4 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
69/100
Moderate debt risk (69/100). Interest coverage ratio 10.4x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.3x — manageable.
Leverage: 76/100 | Debt Service: 80/100 | Quality: 77/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%9.3
ROIC (%9.3) slightly exceeds cost of capital (1.4 points).
WACC: %7.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
116.45
DCF modeli 116.45 target value produced — compared to current price %308.9 undervalued.
Current price: 28.48
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$36.8
Graham intrinsic value: HK$36.8. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
11.6x
vs 10.2x
Sector median's %13 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.25x
vs 1.13x
Compared to sector %10 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
vs 8.6x
Compared to sector %10 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%9.3
vs %7.8 WACC
ROIC 1.4 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%3.7
vs %5.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %3.7
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (28.48), TRAMA-99 line's %12.7 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 28.48
TRAMA: 32.62
Difference: %-12.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
6936 — Participation Finance Compliance
Loading…
The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.