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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
52/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
51/100
Dalio Risk ?
91/100
Piotroski ?
1/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$43.7
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
86/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (86/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 11 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$742M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+90.6 arttı (HK$389M → HK$742M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+332.7 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+62.0 arttı (HK$2.2B → HK$3.5B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+113.1 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %42.2 → %36.5 (-5.8 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %20.9. Her 100HK$ satıştan 21HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$4.8B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 2.62x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+61.9 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (HK$742M) ama FCF negatif (-HK$572M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+98.4 arttı (HK$444M → HK$880M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 13.1. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+98.4 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-34.5 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
173 days
Annual Volatility ?
%92.2
VaR 95% ?
%9.73
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%13.69
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%10.79
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%70.0
25.06.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.88
Parametrik%9.73
Historik%9.55
Cornish-Fisher%7.78
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-20.0%
ROIC ?
16.5%
DCF Value ?
59.52
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+332.7
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+113.1)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %36.5
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %20.9
FAVÖK marjı: %24.8
Toplam borç: 1.4B HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -4.8B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.10x
Cari oran güçlü: 2.62x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 6.2B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -343.1M HKD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -572.2M HKD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %5.3
ROA: %3.5
İşletme kârı pozitif: 920.2M HKD
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 127.8x (Faiz: 6.9M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 489.0M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 11.4B HKD
CAPEX: 69.5M HKD (Hasılatın %2.0'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-52.4 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 127.80 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %87'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%20.9
Net profit margin %20.9 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +3.1 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%10.7
ROE %10.7 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%24.8
EBITDA margin %24.8 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%36.5
Gross profit per revenue %36.5. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-3.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-3.8'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.1x
Sector: 12.3x
F/K 13.1x — sector median's (12.3x) %7 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
2.11x
Sector: 1.54x
PD/DD 2.11x — sector median's (1.54x) %37 above.
EV/EBITDA
14.9x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 14.9x — sector median's (7.6x) %96 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.62x
Current ratio 2.62x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.8x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.8x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.10x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
67.1x
Interest coverage 67.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+113.1
Revenue YoY %113.1 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+332.7
Net profit YoY %332.7 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
52/100
Moderate robustness (52/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-20.0%
Minus %20.0 expected value (48.66) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 44.98 | P/B target: 45.81 | EV/EBITDA target: 31.03 | DCF target: 59.52
Damodaran Valuation
51/100
Moderate Damodaran score (51/100). ROIC (%16.5) – WACC (%10.3) difference +6.2 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
91/100
Low debt risk (91/100). Interest coverage ratio 67.1x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.8x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 94/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 80/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%16.5
ROIC (%16.5) cost of capital 6.2 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %10.3
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
59.52
DCF (59.52) near current price (%-2.1) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 60.80
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Weak Piotroski (1/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$43.7
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
13.1x
vs 12.3x
Sector median's %7 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
2.11x
vs 1.54x
Compared to sector %37 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
14.9x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %96 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%16.5
vs %10.3 WACC
ROIC 6.2 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%16.9
vs %19.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %16.9
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (60.80), TRAMA-99 line's %52.4 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 60.80
TRAMA: 127.80
Difference: %-52.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
3200 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.