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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
52/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
35/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
42/100
Piotroski ?
0/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -5.3037 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
1/4
Confidence?
43%
Lothien Robustness Summary
6/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (6/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 8 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -HK$313M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-1986.5 geriledi (HK$17M → -HK$313M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-69.4 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-16.9 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %13.5 → %-3.3 (-16.8 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 0.73x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-430.1 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.70. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-32.0. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+17.6 artabilir (-HK$313M → -HK$258M).
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%100.3
VaR 95% ?
%10.47
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%14.78
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%10.12
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%78.5
03.02.2026 → 15.10.2026
Skewness ?
2.93
Parametrik%10.47
Historik%7.21
Cornish-Fisher%1.77
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+86.0%
ROIC ?
-4.9%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-1986.5 düşerek -313.3M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-69.4 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %-12.3 düştü (1.7B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-16.9)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %-3.3
Brüt marj değişimi: %-16.8 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-18.0 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-430.1 düştü (-294.7M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %-16.9
Toplam borç %+10.4 arttı → 7.8B HKD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 3.2B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 1.75x
Cari oran: 1.00x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+12.9 arttı → 4.5B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -1.2B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 109.9M HKD
ROE negatif: %-7.1 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-1.6
Toplam varlıklar: 20.0B HKD (%+5.0)
Özkaynak %-6.2 azaldı → 4.4B HKD
İşletme kârı negatif: -174.2M HKD — faaliyet zararı
Faiz gideri: 87.7M HKD
Ödenmiş sermaye: 311.3M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 5.5M HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-98.1
CAPEX: 23.1M HKD (Hasılatın %1.3'i)
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-19.9 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 12.52 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-18.0
Net profit margin %-18.0 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -18.8 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-32.0
ROE %-32.0 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%-16.9
EBITDA margin %-16.9 — operational loss.
Gross Profit Margin
%-3.3
Gross profit per revenue %-3.3. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%1.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %1.2'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
0.70x
Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 0.70x — sector median's (2.25x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.00x
Current ratio 1.00x — borderline, attention required.
Debt / Equity
1.75x
Debt/Equity 1.75x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
-4.1x
Interest coverage -4.1x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-16.9
Revenue YoY %-16.9 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-69.4
Loss %69.4 increased — losses deepening.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
52/100
Moderate robustness (52/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+86.0%
Plus %86.0 expected value (18.66) vs current price comparison. 1/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %43.
Components: P/B target: 30.09
Damodaran Valuation
35/100
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
42/100
High debt risk (42/100). Interest coverage ratio -4.1x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 13/100 | Debt Service: 50/100 | Quality: 16/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-4.9
ROIC (%-4.9) cost of capital (6.4%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %6.4
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
0/9
Weak Piotroski (0/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -5.3037 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
0.70x
vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %69 cheaper (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%-4.9
vs %6.4 WACC
ROIC 11.4 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-20.4
vs %-16.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-20.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (10.03), TRAMA-99 line's %19.9 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 10.03
TRAMA: 12.52
Difference: %-19.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
2865 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.