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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
72/100
Very Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
66/100
Dalio Risk ?
58/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Graham ?
HK$13.7
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
90/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (90/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 12 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$4.2B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+420.8 arttı (HK$801M → HK$4.2B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+420.8 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+292.6 arttı (HK$5.5B → HK$21.5B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+292.6 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %24.8 → %32.2 (+7.5 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %19.4. Her 100HK$ satıştan 19HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.16x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.60x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+398.7 arttı (HK$1.5B → HK$7.5B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 3.5. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 3.4. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %48.7. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 72/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-74.1 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-22
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
223 days
Annual Volatility ?
%72.3
VaR 95% ?
%7.44
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.55
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.22
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%60.2
12.03.2026 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.39
Parametrik%7.44
Historik%7.20
Cornish-Fisher%6.86
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+64.1%
ROIC ?
15.1%
DCF Value ?
11.92
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+420.8
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+292.6)
Brüt kâr marjı: %32.2
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %19.4
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %35.0
Toplam borç: 17.0B HKD
Net borç: 14.4B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 1.37x
Cari oran < 1: 0.60x — likidite riski
Nakit ve benzerleri: 2.5B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 7.1B HKD
ROE yüksek: %33.6 — özkaynak verimli kullanılıyor
ROA güçlü: %11.6 — varlıklar etkin kullanılıyor
Ödenmiş sermaye: 2.1B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -6.3B HKD — kısa vadeli baskı
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-35.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 20.09 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%19.4
Net profit margin %19.4 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +4.8 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%48.7
ROE %48.7 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%35.0
EBITDA margin %35.0 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%32.2
Gross profit per revenue %32.2. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%7.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %7.0'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
3.5x
Sector: 12.0x
F/K 3.5x — sector median's (12.0x) %71 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
2.17x
Sector: 1.75x
PD/DD 2.17x — sector median's (1.75x) %24 above.
EV/EBITDA
3.4x
Sector: 8.1x
EV/EBITDA 3.4x — sector median's (8.1x) %57 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.60x
Current ratio 0.60x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
1.37x
Debt/Equity 1.37x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
14.0x
Interest coverage 14.0x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+292.6
Revenue YoY %292.6 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+420.8
Net profit YoY %420.8 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 1.9B). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 701.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
72/100
Very strong robustness score (72/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+64.1%
Plus %64.1 expected value (21.28) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 38.91 | P/B target: 11.36 | EV/EBITDA target: 30.45 | DCF target: 11.92
Damodaran Valuation
66/100
Moderate Damodaran score (66/100). ROIC (%15.1) – WACC (%8.5) difference +6.6 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
58/100
Moderate debt risk (58/100). Interest coverage ratio 14.0x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.4x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 67/100 | Debt Service: 65/100 | Quality: 80/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%15.1
ROIC (%15.1) cost of capital 6.6 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %8.5
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
11.92
DCF (11.92) near current price (%-8.1) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 12.97
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$13.7
Graham intrinsic value: HK$13.7. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
3.5x
vs 12.0x
Sector median's %71 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
2.17x
vs 1.75x
Compared to sector %24 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
3.4x
vs 8.1x
Compared to sector %57 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%15.1
vs %8.5 WACC
ROIC 6.6 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%17.3
vs %31.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %17.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (12.93), TRAMA-99 line's %35.6 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 12.93
TRAMA: 20.09
Difference: %-35.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
2788 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.