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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
45/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
48/100
Dalio Risk ?
33/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$7.1
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
59%
Lothien Robustness Summary
0/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (0/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 1 | Negatif: 10 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -HK$5.7B zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-300.3 geriledi (-HK$1.4B → -HK$5.7B). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-180.5 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-26.9 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %5.2 → %-8.4 (-13.6 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 0.73x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.79x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-643.3 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 158.4. Pahalı değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-6.4. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+96.8 artabilir (-HK$5.7B → -HK$185M).
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
173 days
Annual Volatility ?
%44.0
VaR 95% ?
%4.57
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.45
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.54
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%41.0
17.03.2026 → 25.06.2026
Skewness ?
0.37
Parametrik%4.57
Historik%4.15
Cornish-Fisher%4.22
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+7.1%
ROIC ?
1.6%
DCF Value ?
273.82
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-300.3 düşerek -5.7B HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-180.5 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (34.6B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-26.9)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %-8.4
Brüt marj değişimi: %-13.6 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-16.5 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-643.3 düştü (-4.8B HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %-13.8
Toplam borç: 87.7B HKD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 68.3B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.93x
Cari oran < 1: 0.79x — likidite riski
Nakit %+16.0 arttı → 19.4B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 10.5B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -3.9B HKD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE negatif: %-6.1 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-2.8
Toplam varlıklar: 205.3B HKD (%-1.2)
Özkaynak %-8.1 azaldı → 94.0B HKD
İşletme kârı negatif: -4.6B HKD — faaliyet zararı
Faiz gideri: 609.4M HKD
Ödenmiş sermaye: 5.8B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -18.6B HKD — kısa vadeli baskı
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-177.9
CAPEX: 2.4B HKD (Hasılatın %6.9'i)
Son 2 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+19.3 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 31.06 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-16.5
Net profit margin %-16.5 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -12.4 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-6.4
ROE %-6.4 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%-13.8
EBITDA margin %-13.8 — operational loss.
Gross Profit Margin
%-8.4
Gross profit per revenue %-8.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-1.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-1.5'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
2.27x
Sector: 1.11x
PD/DD 2.27x — sector median's %105 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
158.4x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 158.4x — sector median's (7.6x) %1987 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.79x
Current ratio 0.79x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
49.3x
Net Debt/EBITDA 49.3x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.93x
Debt/Equity 0.93x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
0.7x
Interest coverage 0.7x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-26.9
Revenue YoY %-26.9 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-180.5
Net profit YoY %-180.5 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
45/100
Moderate robustness (45/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+7.1%
Plus %7.1 expected value (39.67) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %59.
Components: P/B target: 18.06 | EV/EBITDA target: 9.26 | DCF target: 111.12
Damodaran Valuation
48/100
Low Damodaran score (48/100). ROIC (%1.6) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
33/100
High debt risk (33/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.7x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 49.3x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 34/100 | Debt Service: 29/100 | Quality: 38/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%1.6
ROIC (%1.6) cost of capital (7.1%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
273.82
DCF modeli 273.82 target value produced — compared to current price %639.3 undervalued.
Current price: 37.04
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$7.1
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
2.27x
vs 1.11x
Compared to sector %105 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
158.4x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %1987 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.6
vs %7.1 WACC
ROIC 5.5 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%0.5
vs %1.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %0.5
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (37.04), TRAMA-99 line's %19.3 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 37.04
TRAMA: 31.06
Difference: %+19.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
2714 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.