2691NANHUA FUTURES

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Borsası
5.72
HKD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
68/100
Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
51/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır
Dalio Risk ?
94/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Current ratio data missing (C6); gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); Banka/finans: kaldıraç/cari-oran/marj kriterleri uygulanamaz, skor kalan kriterlere göre normalize edildi
Graham ?
HK$11.1
Ucuz
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
74%
Lothien Robustness Summary
69/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (69/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$215M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%-10.4). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-21.3 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %41.2. Her 100HK$ satıştan 41HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$51.0B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 6.9. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.83. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Mevsimsel Etki
Çeyreklik düşüş (%-10.4) ama yıllık bazda artış (%+26.1). Bu muhtemelen mevsimsel bir düşüş.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
204 days
Annual Volatility ?
%60.0
VaR 95% ?
%6.37
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.94
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.00
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%53.5
16.01.2026 → 23.10.2026
Skewness ?
-1.15
Parametrik%6.37
Historik%4.95
Cornish-Fisher%6.62
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+17.1%
DCF Value ?
6.64
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-10.4 düşerek 215.0M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+26.1
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (522.2M HKD)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-21.3)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %166.1
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %41.2
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %185.7
Toplam borç: 1.6B HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -51.0B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.23x
Nakit ve benzerleri: 52.6B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 111.6M HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 97.6M HKD
ROE düşük: %3.1
ROA düşük: %0.2
Toplam varlıklar: 89.6B HKD (%-2.1)
Özkaynak: 6.8B HKD (%+1.4)
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 95.9x (Faiz: 10.1M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 992.3M HKD
CAPEX: 14.1M HKD (Hasılatın %2.7'i)
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-22.2 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 7.35 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %41.2
Net profit margin %41.2 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter -6.1 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %9.0
ROE %9.0 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %185.7
EBITDA margin %185.7 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin %166.1
Gross profit per revenue %166.1. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %620.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %620.9'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 6.9x Sector: 9.4x
F/K 6.9x — sector median (9.4x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio 0.83x Sector: 0.86x
PD/DD 0.83x — sector median (0.86x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
Indebtedness
Net Debt / EBITDA 0.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.4x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 0.23x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 80.8x
Interest coverage 80.8x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %-21.3
Revenue YoY %-21.3 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+26.1
Net profit YoY %26.1 increased — strong profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
68/100
Good robustness (68/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+17.1%
Plus %17.1 expected value (6.70) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %74.
Components: PE target: 8.10 | P/B target: 6.12 | DCF target: 6.64
Damodaran Valuation
51/100
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
94/100
Low debt risk (94/100). Interest coverage ratio 80.8x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.4x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 87/100
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
6.64
DCF (6.64) near current price (%+16.0) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 5.72
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Current ratio data missing (C6)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$11.1
Graham intrinsic value: HK$11.1. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
6.9x vs 9.4x
Sector median's %26 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.83x vs 0.86x
Compared to sector %3 cheaper (by book value)
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (5.72), TRAMA-99 line's %22.2 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 5.72
TRAMA: 7.35
Difference: %-22.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
2691 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.