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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
37/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
28/100
Dalio Risk ?
83/100
Piotroski ?
0/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.3423 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
56%
Lothien Robustness Summary
78/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (78/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 9 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$121M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+389.1 arttı (-HK$42M → HK$121M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+487.4 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+22.6 arttı (HK$1.3B → HK$1.6B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+73.5 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$881M fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 5.05x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+50.9 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (HK$121M) ama FCF negatif (-HK$838M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+423.8 arttı (-HK$39M → HK$128M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-0.3. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-100.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
214 days
Annual Volatility ?
%72.5
VaR 95% ?
%7.35
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.46
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.48
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%47.0
27.05.2026 → 03.08.2026
Skewness ?
0.29
Parametrik%7.35
Historik%7.53
Cornish-Fisher%6.90
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-32.9%
ROIC ?
0.9%
DCF Value ?
11.44
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+389.1 artarak 121.2M HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+487.4
Hasılat çeyreklik %+22.6 büyüdü (1.6B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+73.5)
Brüt kâr marjı: %30.8
Brüt marj değişimi: %-2.9 puan
Net kâr marjı: %7.4
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+423.8 büyüdü (127.7M HKD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %7.8
Toplam borç %+50.9 arttı → 1.9B HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -881.0M HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.21x
Cari oran güçlü: 5.05x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %-16.4 azaldı → 2.8B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -1.0B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -838.2M HKD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %1.3
ROA düşük: %1.0
Toplam varlıklar %+10.2 büyüdü → 12.3B HKD
Özkaynak: 9.1B HKD (%+1.9)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 90.6M HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+149.7
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 17.1x (Faiz: 7.5M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 162.6M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 5.6B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-7.0
CAPEX: 231.3M HKD (Hasılatın %14.1'i)
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-21.4 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 162.37 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%7.4
Net profit margin %7.4 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +10.5 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-0.3
ROE %-0.3 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%7.8
EBITDA margin %7.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%30.8
Gross profit per revenue %30.8. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-34.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-34.5'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
2.29x
Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 2.29x — sector median's (2.25x) %2 above.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
5.05x
Current ratio 5.05x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Debt / Equity
0.21x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
-0.7x
Interest coverage -0.7x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+73.5
Revenue YoY %73.5 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+487.4
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/6). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
37/100
Weak robustness (37/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-32.9%
Minus %32.9 expected value (85.73) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %56.
Components: P/B target: 125.64 | DCF target: 31.93
Damodaran Valuation
28/100
Low Damodaran score (28/100). ROIC (%0.9) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
83/100
Low debt risk (83/100). Interest coverage ratio -0.7x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 90/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 26/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%0.9
ROIC (%0.9) cost of capital (11.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %11.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
11.44
DCF (11.44) current price %91.0 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 127.70
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
0/9
Weak Piotroski (0/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.3423 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
2.29x
vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %2 more expensive (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%0.9
vs %11.0 WACC
ROIC 10.2 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-1.1
vs %-0.4 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-1.1
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (127.70), TRAMA-99 line's %21.4 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 127.70
TRAMA: 162.37
Difference: %-21.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
2676 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.