2643CaoCao Inc.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Borsası
9.60
HKD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
60/100
Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
84/100
Dalio Risk ?
23/100
Piotroski ?
7/9
Strong
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
56%
Lothien Robustness Summary
40/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (40/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -HK$186M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+49.2 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.42x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 30.5. Pahalı değerleme.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+53.8 artabilir (-HK$186M → -HK$86M).

Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-22
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%71.5
VaR 95% ?
%7.94
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%11.01
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.88
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%81.7
23.10.2025 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.58
Parametrik%7.94
Historik%6.55
Cornish-Fisher%6.91
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+37.4%
ROIC ?
131.7%
DCF Value ?
95.24
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Toplam borç: 8.8B HKD
Net borç: 6.9B HKD
Cari oran < 1: 0.45x — likidite riski
Nakit ve benzerleri: 1.8B HKD
Ödenmiş sermaye: 582.5M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -4.4B HKD — kısa vadeli baskı
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-21.5 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 12.23 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %-3.1
Net profit margin %-3.1 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %8.1
ROE %8.1 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %1.7
EBITDA margin %1.7 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin %9.4
Gross profit per revenue %9.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %-0.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-0.5'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
EV/EBITDA 30.5x Sector: 10.3x
EV/EBITDA 30.5x — sector median's (10.3x) %196 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 0.45x
Current ratio 0.45x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA 21.2x
Net Debt/EBITDA 21.2x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Interest Coverage 1.3x
Interest coverage 1.3x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+37.7
Revenue YoY %37.7 grew (2025/12) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+49.2
Loss %49.2 decreased — improvement continues.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
60/100
Good robustness (60/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+37.4%
Plus %37.4 expected value (13.29) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %56.
Components: EV/EBITDA target: 3.27 | DCF target: 29.01
Damodaran Valuation
84/100
Strong Damodaran valuation (84/100). ROIC (%131.7) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Very Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
23/100
High debt risk (23/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.3x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 21.2x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 0/100 | Debt Service: 27/100 | Quality: 63/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%131.7
ROIC (%131.7) cost of capital 125.1 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %6.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
95.24
DCF modeli 95.24 target value produced — compared to current price %884.9 undervalued.
Current price: 9.67
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met.
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
EV/EBITDA
30.5x vs 10.3x
Compared to sector %196 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%131.7 vs %6.6 WACC
ROIC 125.1 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-3.1 vs %1.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-3.1
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (9.60), TRAMA-99 line's %21.5 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 9.60
TRAMA: 12.23
Difference: %-21.5
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
2643 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.