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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
75/100
Very Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
63/100
Dalio Risk ?
91/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
HK$45.1
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
68/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (68/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$2.9B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+18.2). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %27.7. Her 100HK$ satıştan 28HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$8.0B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+248.7 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (HK$2.9B) kârın %98'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 10.5. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 75/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%46.7
VaR 95% ?
%5.17
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.18
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.95
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%66.4
28.10.2025 → 05.10.2026
Skewness ?
-1.95
Parametrik%5.17
Historik%4.30
Cornish-Fisher%5.89
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+66.1%
ROIC ?
11.3%
DCF Value ?
80.31
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+18.2 artarak 2.9B HKD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi sınırlı (%+2.6)
Hasılat çeyreklik %+13.1 büyüdü (10.5B HKD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%+5.8)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %44.2
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %27.7
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+16.4 büyüdü (3.6B HKD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %34.4
Toplam borç %+248.7 arttı → 19.8B HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -8.0B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.22x
Cari oran: 1.74x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+28.7 arttı → 27.8B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 3.4B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 2.9B HKD
ROE düşük: %3.2
ROA: %2.1
Toplam varlıklar %+17.1 büyüdü → 137.1B HKD
Özkaynak %+5.3 arttı → 91.8B HKD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 3.2B HKD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+15.9
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 614.4x (Faiz: 5.9M HKD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 3.3B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 19.9B HKD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-6.1
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-3.2
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 34.82 HKD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%27.7
Net profit margin %27.7 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +1.2 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%11.7
ROE %11.7 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%34.4
EBITDA margin %34.4 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%44.2
Gross profit per revenue %44.2. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%28.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %28.4'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.5x
Sector: 18.5x
F/K 10.5x — sector median's (18.5x) %43 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
1.20x
Sector: 2.25x
PD/DD 1.20x — sector median's (2.25x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
Sector: 10.9x
EV/EBITDA 7.7x — sector median (10.9x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.74x
Current ratio 1.74x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.5x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.5x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.22x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
82.8x
Interest coverage 82.8x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+5.8
Revenue YoY %5.8 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+2.6
Net profit YoY %2.6 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
75/100
Very strong robustness score (75/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+66.1%
Plus %66.1 expected value (55.96) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 60.45 | P/B target: 65.24 | EV/EBITDA target: 47.59 | DCF target: 80.31
Damodaran Valuation
63/100
Moderate Damodaran score (63/100). ROIC (%11.3) – WACC (%9.3) difference +2.0 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
91/100
Low debt risk (91/100). Interest coverage ratio 82.8x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.5x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 80/100 | Debt Service: 94/100 | Quality: 90/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%11.3
ROIC (%11.3) slightly exceeds cost of capital (2.0 points).
WACC: %9.3
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
80.31
DCF modeli 80.31 target value produced — compared to current price %138.3 undervalued.
Current price: 33.70
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$45.1
Graham intrinsic value: HK$45.1. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
10.5x
vs 18.5x
Sector median's %43 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.20x
vs 2.25x
Compared to sector %47 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
vs 10.9x
Compared to sector %29 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%11.3
vs %9.3 WACC
ROIC 2.0 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%26.3
vs %33.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %26.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (33.70), TRAMA-99 line (34.82) at close levels (%-3.2). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 33.70
TRAMA: 34.82
Difference: %-3.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
1698 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.