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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
76/100
Very Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
50/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır
Dalio Risk ?
58/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Graham ?
HK$10.1
Ucuz
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Lothien Robustness Summary
91/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (91/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 11 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$2.3B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+290.0 arttı (HK$589M → HK$2.3B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+290.0 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+233.4 arttı (HK$2.7B → HK$9.1B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+233.4 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %58.2 → %86.3 (+28.1 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %25.1. Her 100HK$ satıştan 25HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.30x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+476.6 arttı (HK$1.4B → HK$7.9B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 4.1. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.31. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 18.1. Pahalı değerleme.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 76/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%31.9
VaR 95% ?
%3.51
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.88
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.48
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%48.2
30.10.2025 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.12
Parametrik%3.51
Historik%3.65
Cornish-Fisher%3.40
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+61.6%
DCF Value ?
4.23
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+290.0
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+233.4)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %86.3
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %25.1
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %86.3
Toplam borç: 92.1B HKD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 80.0B HKD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 1.50x
Cari oran: 1.32x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 12.1B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -10.2B HKD
ROE düşük: %3.7
ROA düşük: %0.8
Ödenmiş sermaye: 5.7B HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 58.9B HKD
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-14.9 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 3.91 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %84'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%25.1
Net profit margin %25.1 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +3.6 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%5.6
ROE %5.6 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%86.3
EBITDA margin %86.3 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%86.3
Gross profit per revenue %86.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-111.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-111.9'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
4.1x
Sector: 9.4x
F/K 4.1x — sector median's (9.4x) %56 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
0.31x
Sector: 0.86x
PD/DD 0.31x — sector median's (0.86x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
18.1x
Sector: 7.9x
EV/EBITDA 18.1x — sector median's (7.9x) %128 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.32x
Current ratio 1.32x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
16.8x
Net Debt/EBITDA 16.8x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
1.50x
Debt/Equity 1.50x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
5.1x
Interest coverage 5.1x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+233.4
Revenue YoY %233.4 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+290.0
Net profit YoY %290.0 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 1.0B). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 352.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
76/100
Very strong robustness score (76/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+61.6%
Plus %61.6 expected value (5.38) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 9.24 | P/B target: 9.61 | EV/EBITDA target: 1.46 | DCF target: 4.23
Damodaran Valuation
50/100
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
58/100
Moderate debt risk (58/100). Interest coverage ratio 5.1x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 16.8x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 77/100 | Quality: 73/100
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
4.23
DCF modeli 4.23 target value produced — compared to current price %27.2 undervalued.
Current price: 3.33
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met.
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$10.1
Graham intrinsic value: HK$10.1. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
4.1x
vs 9.4x
Sector median's %56 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.31x
vs 0.86x
Compared to sector %64 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
18.1x
vs 7.9x
Compared to sector %128 higher EV/EBITDA
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%23.4
vs %31.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %23.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (3.33), TRAMA-99 line's %14.9 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 3.33
TRAMA: 3.91
Difference: %-14.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
1456 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.