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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
71/100
Very Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
69/100
Dalio Risk ?
97/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Graham ?
HK$26.9
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
95/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (95/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 11 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte HK$1.3B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+279.5 arttı (HK$353M → HK$1.3B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+279.5 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+286.9 arttı (HK$1.5B → HK$5.7B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+286.9 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %23.4. Her 100HK$ satıştan 23HK$ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından HK$3.2B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 4.92x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+247.4 arttı (HK$498M → HK$1.7B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 8.6. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %36.2. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 71/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-55.3 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%49.0
VaR 95% ?
%5.32
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.42
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.03
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%59.3
15.10.2025 → 06.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.44
Parametrik%5.32
Historik%4.50
Cornish-Fisher%4.88
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+5.2%
ROIC ?
48.7%
DCF Value ?
60.37
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+279.5
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+286.9)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %84.6
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %23.4
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %30.2
Toplam borç: 106.4M HKD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -3.2B HKD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.02x
Cari oran güçlü: 4.92x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 3.3B HKD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 1.3B HKD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 828.9M HKD
ROE yüksek: %23.0 — özkaynak verimli kullanılıyor
ROA güçlü: %19.2 — varlıklar etkin kullanılıyor
Ödenmiş sermaye: 490.2M HKD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 4.3B HKD
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-4.1
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 49.68 HKD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %77'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%23.4
Net profit margin %23.4 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter -0.5 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%36.2
ROE %36.2 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%30.2
EBITDA margin %30.2 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%84.6
Gross profit per revenue %84.6. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%16.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %16.9'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.6x
Sector: 12.4x
F/K 8.6x — sector median's (12.4x) %31 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
4.01x
Sector: 1.54x
PD/DD 4.01x — sector median's %160 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
Sector: 7.2x
EV/EBITDA 6.3x — sector median (7.2x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
4.92x
Current ratio 4.92x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.02x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
1185.2x
Interest coverage 1185.2x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+286.9
Revenue YoY %286.9 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+279.5
Net profit YoY %279.5 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 650.3M). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 305.6M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
71/100
Very strong robustness score (71/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+5.2%
Plus %5.2 expected value (50.09) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 66.70 | P/B target: 20.13 | EV/EBITDA target: 55.18 | DCF target: 60.37
Damodaran Valuation
69/100
Moderate Damodaran score (69/100). ROIC (%48.7) – WACC (%10.7) difference +38.0 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
97/100
Low debt risk (97/100). Interest coverage ratio 1185.2x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.0x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 100/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 88/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%48.7
ROIC (%48.7) cost of capital 38.0 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %10.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
60.37
DCF modeli 60.37 target value produced — compared to current price %26.8 undervalued.
Current price: 47.62
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
HK$26.9
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
8.6x
vs 12.4x
Sector median's %31 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
4.01x
vs 1.54x
Compared to sector %160 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
vs 7.2x
Compared to sector %14 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%48.7
vs %10.7 WACC
ROIC 38.0 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%23.6
vs %31.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %23.6
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (47.62), TRAMA-99 line (49.68) at close levels (%-4.1). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 47.62
TRAMA: 49.68
Difference: %-4.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
1318 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.