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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
29/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
79/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Graham ?
A$18.0
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
69%
Valuation
Potential?
-26.3%
ROIC ?
-0.3%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
3495
2012-11-08 → 2026-08-31
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%48.4
VaR 95% ?
%5.23
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.30
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.09
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%62.4
23.09.2025 → 24.07.2026
Skewness ?
-0.28
Parametrik%5.23
Historik%4.49
Cornish-Fisher%5.25
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (82.87), TRAMA-99 line's %6.1 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 82.87
TRAMA: 78.0859
Difference: %+6.1
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%6.1
Net profit margin %6.1 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%3.1
ROE %3.1 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%32.3
EBITDA margin %32.3 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%83.9
Gross profit per revenue %83.9. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%18.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %18.8'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.0x
Sector: 37.2x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (37.2x) %169 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
3.77x
Sector: 3.65x
PD/DD 3.77x — sector median's (3.65x) %3 above.
EV/EBITDA
23.1x
Sector: 16.2x
EV/EBITDA 23.1x — sector median's (16.2x) %43 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.09x
Current ratio 1.09x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.4x
Net Borç/EBITDA 2.4x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.39x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
20.4x
Interest coverage 20.4x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+20.1
Revenue YoY %20.1 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-32.6
Net profit YoY %-32.6 declined (2026/12) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 35.4M). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 34.5M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
32/100
Weak robustness (32/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-26.3%
Minus %26.3 expected value (61.11) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %69.
Components: PE target: 24.85 | P/B target: 80.74 | EV/EBITDA target: 58.07
Damodaran Valuation
29/100
Low Damodaran score (29/100). ROIC (%-0.3) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik).
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
79/100
Low debt risk (79/100). Interest coverage ratio 20.4x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 2.4x — manageable.
Leverage: 66/100 | Debt Service: 77/100 | Quality: 70/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%-0.3
ROIC (%-0.3) cost of capitaln (12.2%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %12.2
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
A$18.0
Graham intrinsic value: A$18.0. Pahalı
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x
vs 37.2x
Sector mediannın %169 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
3.77x
vs 3.65x
Compared to sector %3 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
23.1x
vs 16.2x
Compared to sector %43 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-0.3
vs %12.2 WACC
ROIC 12.5 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%6.1
vs %32.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %6.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
XRO — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.