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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
58/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
52/100
Dalio Risk ?
37/100
Piotroski ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Graham ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
69%
Lothien Robustness Summary
48/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (48/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 7 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -₺620M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-93.2 geriledi (-₺321M → -₺620M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+33.4 arttı (₺641M → ₺855M). Talep güçlü.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.25x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+28.7 arttı (₺239M → ₺308M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.46. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 5.6. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-39.2. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Reel Kâr Eriyor
Enflasyon düzeltmesi sonrası reel kâr %-280.5 düştü. Nominal artış enflasyonu karşılamıyor.
Reel Hasılat Büyümesi
Reel hasılat %+24.7 arttı. Gerçek büyüme var.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+41.6 artabilir (-₺620M → -₺362M).
Data date 2026-10-28 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-28
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%53.2
VaR 95% ?
%5.76
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.04
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.11
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%58.1
25.06.2026 → 28.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.02
Parametrik%5.76
Historik%6.63
Cornish-Fisher%5.63
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+92.0%
ROIC ?
4.8%
DCF Value ?
91.81
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-93.2 düşerek -619.6M TL oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-19.9 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+33.4 büyüdü (854.7M TL)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+19.0)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %36.0
Brüt marj değişimi: %-1.3 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-72.5 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+28.7 büyüdü (307.6M TL)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %36.0
Toplam borç: 5.4B TL
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 5.4B TL
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 1.26x
Cari oran: 1.16x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 51.8M TL
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 705.4M TL
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 616.9M TL
ROE negatif: %-14.5 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-4.5
Toplam varlıklar: 13.6B TL (%+0.6)
Özkaynak %-6.2 azaldı → 4.3B TL
İşletme kârı pozitif: 140.5M TL
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+1110.0
Ödenmiş sermaye: 413.0M TL
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 747.2M TL
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-52.6
CAPEX: 88.5M TL (Hasılatın %10.4'i)
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-34.5 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 7.29 TL
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 280.5% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue +24.7% — sales growing above inflation
Reel ROE %-57.9 — enflasyon düzeltmesinden sonra zarar
Yıllık %32 enflasyona rağmen reel büyüme devam ediyor
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/6 | %32 | ×1.00 | ₺-620M | ₺-620M | %-280.5 | ₺855M | ₺855M | %-57.9 |
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺-321M | ₺-343M | %-140.7 | ₺641M | ₺686M | %-28.1 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺-716M | ₺-843M | %-1000.8 | ₺1.6B | ₺1.9B | %-54.8 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺-76M | ₺-94M | %-113.7 | ₺314M | ₺386M | %-6.7 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-517M | ₺-683M | %-175.9 | ₺718M | ₺949M | %-46.1 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-642M | ₺-899M | %-770.8 | ₺704M | ₺985M | %-57.7 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺87M | ₺134M | %-71.9 | ₺1.1B | ₺1.7B | %7.9 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺292M | ₺478M | %+134.2 | ₺532M | ₺872M | %38.5 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-72.5
Net profit margin %-72.5 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -22.4 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-39.2
ROE %-39.2 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%36.0
EBITDA margin %36.0 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%36.0
Gross profit per revenue %36.0. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%67.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %67.1'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
0.46x
Sector: 1.88x
PD/DD 0.46x — sector median's (1.88x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
5.6x
Sector: 6.4x
EV/EBITDA 5.6x — sector median (6.4x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.16x
Current ratio 1.16x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.2x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.2x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
1.26x
Debt/Equity 1.26x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
0.7x
Interest coverage 0.7x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+19.0
Revenue YoY %19.0 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-19.9
Loss %19.9 increased — losses deepening.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 107.8M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit -340.6M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
58/100
Good robustness (58/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+92.0%
Plus %92.0 expected value (9.16) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %69.
Components: P/B target: 14.31 | EV/EBITDA target: 5.39 | DCF target: 14.31
Damodaran Valuation
52/100
Moderate Damodaran score (52/100). ROIC (%4.8) – WACC (%29.9) difference -25.1 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
37/100
High debt risk (37/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.7x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 4.2x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 58/100 | Debt Service: 38/100 | Quality: 36/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%4.8
ROIC (%4.8) cost of capital (29.9%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %29.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
91.81
DCF modeli 91.81 target value produced — compared to current price %1824.8 undervalued.
Current price: 4.77
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
0.46x
vs 1.88x
Compared to sector %76 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
5.6x
vs 6.4x
Compared to sector %12 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.8
vs %29.9 WACC
ROIC 25.1 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-50.3
vs %37.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-50.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (4.77), TRAMA-99 line's %34.5 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 4.77
TRAMA: 7.29
Difference: %-34.5
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.