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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
25/100
Dalio Risk ?
85/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
₺34.0
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
-25.5%
ROIC ?
14.9%
DCF Value ?
9.89
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
3370
2013-06-28 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%51.6
VaR 95% ?
%5.27
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.49
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.81
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%36.5
09.10.2025 → 04.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.82
Parametrik%5.27
Historik%5.00
Cornish-Fisher%4.39
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit stable (-7.7%) — growth in line with inflation
Real revenue +5.9% — sales growing above inflation
Real gross margin 26.2% → 22.8% (contracted)
Yıllık %31 enflasyona rağmen reel büyüme devam ediyor
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺16M | ₺17M | %-7.7 | ₺717M | ₺768M | %4.7 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺16M | ₺19M | %-73.3 | ₺616M | ₺725M | %5.2 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺57M | ₺71M | %-60.0 | ₺443M | ₺545M | %19.7 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺134M | ₺177M | %+73.7 | ₺550M | ₺726M | %51.8 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-73M | ₺-102M | %-671.4 | ₺426M | ₺597M | %-34.2 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-11M | ₺-18M | %-129.0 | — | — | — |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺34M | ₺61M | — | — | — | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (54.05), TRAMA-99 line's %11.3 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 54.05
TRAMA: 48.5596
Difference: %+11.3
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%2.3
Net profit margin %2.3 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -0.3 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%6.9
ROE %6.9 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%13.5
EBITDA margin %13.5 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%22.8
Gross profit per revenue %22.8. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-11.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-11.3'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.1x
Sector: 23.2x
F/K 19.1x — sector medianna (23.2x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
3.11x
Sector: 2.61x
PD/DD 3.11x — sector median's (2.61x) %19 above.
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
Sector: 10.5x
EV/EBITDA 10.7x — sector median's (10.5x) %2 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.35x
Current ratio 2.35x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.9x
Net Borç/EBITDA 0.9x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.26x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
21.9x
Interest coverage 21.9x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+68.2
Revenue YoY %68.2 grew (2026/3) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+122.4
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/3). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
48/100
Moderate robustness (48/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-25.5%
Minus %25.5 expected value (41.15) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 38.95 | P/B target: 47.84 | EV/EBITDA target: 54.39 | DCF target: 13.81
Damodaran Valuation
25/100
Low Damodaran score (25/100). ROIC (%14.9) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
85/100
Low debt risk (85/100). Interest coverage ratio 21.9x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 0.9x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 85/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 55/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%14.9
ROIC (%14.9) cost of capitaln (42.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %42.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
9.89
DCF (9.89) current price %82.1 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 55.25
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺34.0
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %38.5 üzerinde (₺34.0) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
19.1x
vs 23.2x
Sector mediannın %18 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
3.11x
vs 2.61x
Compared to sector %19 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
vs 10.5x
Compared to sector %2 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%14.9
vs %42.7 WACC
ROIC 27.8 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%9.6
vs %17.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %9.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ KAP satım ·
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.