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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
22/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
88/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Previous year current ratio missing (C6)
Graham ?
₺5.6
Makul
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
56%
Valuation
Potential?
+27.7%
ROIC ?
-1.6%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
3901
2011-06-17 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%50.7
VaR 95% ?
%5.36
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.53
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.73
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%39.4
09.09.2025 → 30.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.67
Parametrik%5.36
Historik%4.75
Cornish-Fisher%4.57
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit stable (-9.1%) — growth in line with inflation
Real revenue fell 9.1% — insufficient pricing power
Reel özkaynak son 12 çeyrekte %198 arttı — gerçek sermaye birikimi
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/12 | %65 | ×2.23 | ₺1M | ₺3M | %-9.1 | ₺73M | ₺163M | %1.9 |
| 2023/9 | %62 | ×2.45 | ₺1M | ₺4M | %-20.1 | ₺73M | ₺179M | %1.9 |
| 2023/6 | %38 | ×3.06 | ₺1M | ₺4M | %-6.1 | ₺73M | ₺224M | %1.9 |
| 2023/3 | %51 | ×3.26 | ₺1M | ₺5M | %-65.3 | ₺73M | ₺239M | %1.9 |
| 2022/12 | %64 | ×3.67 | ₺4M | ₺14M | %-7.2 | ₺172M | ₺630M | %7.2 |
| 2022/9 | %83 | ×3.95 | ₺4M | ₺15M | %-6.6 | ₺172M | ₺679M | %7.2 |
| 2022/6 | %79 | ×4.23 | ₺4M | ₺16M | %-13.7 | ₺172M | ₺727M | %7.2 |
| 2022/3 | %61 | ×4.90 | ₺4M | ₺18M | %+242.7 | ₺172M | ₺843M | %7.2 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (5.23), TRAMA-99 line's %14.6 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 5.23
TRAMA: 6.1253
Difference: %-14.6
Profitability
No balance sheet data
Valuation
P/E Ratio
33.2x
Sector: 16.7x
F/K 33.2x — sector median's (16.7x) %98 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
0.62x
Sector: 1.66x
PD/DD 0.62x — sector median's (1.66x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Debt / Equity
0.00x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
-477.4x
Interest coverage -477.4x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
No balance sheet data
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
44/100
Moderate robustness (44/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+27.7%
Plus %27.7 expected value (6.78) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %56.
Components: PE target: 2.62 | P/B target: 14.30
Damodaran Valuation
22/100
Low Damodaran score (22/100). ROIC (%-1.6) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik).
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
88/100
Low debt risk (88/100). Interest coverage ratio -477.4x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 100/100 | Debt Service: 50/100 | Quality: 64/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%-1.6
ROIC (%-1.6) cost of capitaln (44.3%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %44.3
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Previous year current ratio missing (C6)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺5.6
Graham value (₺5.6) near current price (%+5.5). In fair price zone.
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
33.2x
vs 16.7x
Sector mediannın %98 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
0.62x
vs 1.66x
Compared to sector %63 cheaper (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%-1.6
vs %44.3 WACC
ROIC 45.9 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ KAP alım ·
▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
SAMAT — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.