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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
62/100
Dalio Risk ?
49/100
Piotroski ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Graham ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
+56.1%
ROIC ?
4.7%
DCF Value ?
387.33
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
7371
1997-09-30 → 2026-08-31
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%30.8
VaR 95% ?
%3.01
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.33
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.72
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%19.0
06.03.2026 → 04.06.2026
Skewness ?
2.94
Parametrik%3.01
Historik%1.95
Cornish-Fisher%0.38
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (51.28), TRAMA-99 line's %35.3 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 51.28
TRAMA: 37.8952
Difference: %+35.3
Profitability
No balance sheet data
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.4x
Sector: 12.1x
F/K 9.4x — sector medianna (12.1x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
2.50x
Sector: 3.65x
PD/DD 2.50x — sector median's (3.65x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
3.3x
Sector: 4.9x
EV/EBITDA 3.3x — sector median's (4.9x) %33 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.6x
Net Borç/EBITDA 1.6x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
2.33x
Borç/Özkaynak 2.33x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
10.3x
Interest coverage 10.3x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
No balance sheet data
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
71/100
Very strong robustness score (71/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+56.1%
Plus %56.1 expected value (80.06) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 65.93 | P/B target: 79.67 | EV/EBITDA target: 76.76 | DCF target: 153.84
Damodaran Valuation
62/100
Moderate Damodaran score (62/100). ROIC (%4.7) – WACC (%7.7) farkı -3.0 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
49/100
High debt risk (49/100). Interest coverage ratio 10.3x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 1.6x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 34/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 34/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%4.7
ROIC (%4.7) cost of capitaln (7.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
387.33
DCF modeli 387.33 target value produced — compared to current price %655.3 undervalued.
Current price: 51.28
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
9.4x
vs 12.1x
Sector mediannın %22 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
2.50x
vs 3.65x
Compared to sector %31 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
3.3x
vs 4.9x
Compared to sector %33 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.7
vs %7.7 WACC
ROIC 3.0 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
RHC — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.