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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
21/100
Dalio Risk ?
39/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.8509 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
59%
Valuation
Potential?
-18.8%
ROIC ?
1.2%
DCF Value ?
0.20
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
3657
2012-05-24 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%322.9
VaR 95% ?
%32.07
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%45.93
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.66
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%33.7
30.09.2025 → 24.11.2025
Skewness ?
15.24
Parametrik%32.07
Historik%4.42
Cornish-Fisher%-241.64
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 134.7% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 27.7% — insufficient pricing power
Real gross margin 19.9% → 13.1% (contracted)
Reel ROE %-9.2 — enflasyon düzeltmesinden sonra zarar
Yıllık %31 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺-336M | ₺-360M | %-134.7 | ₺1.4B | ₺1.5B | %-9.2 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺-881M | ₺-1.0B | %-1123.6 | ₺1.7B | ₺2.0B | %-26.0 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺-82M | ₺-101M | %-173.3 | ₺1.6B | ₺2.0B | %-2.4 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-105M | ₺-138M | %-124.6 | ₺1.5B | ₺1.9B | %-2.4 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-401M | ₺-562M | %-183.4 | ₺1.7B | ₺2.3B | %-9.6 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-411M | ₺-673M | %-187.6 | — | — | — |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺-431M | ₺-769M | — | — | — | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (22.68), TRAMA-99 line's %29.6 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 22.68
TRAMA: 17.5017
Difference: %+29.6
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-24.3
Net profit margin %-24.3 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +26.4 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-9.2
ROE %-9.2 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%6.8
EBITDA margin %6.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%13.1
Gross profit per revenue %13.1. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%5.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %5.1'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
1.17x
Sector: 1.74x
PD/DD 1.17x — sector median's (1.74x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
70.7x
Sector: 11.1x
EV/EBITDA 70.7x — sector median's (11.1x) %538 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.87x
Current ratio 0.87x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
8.1x
Net Borç/EBITDA 8.1x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.15x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
1.0x
Interest coverage 1.0x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-16.7
Revenue YoY %-16.7 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+16.2
Loss %16.2 decreased — improvement continues.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
35/100
Weak robustness (35/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-18.8%
Minus %18.8 expected value (18.21) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %59.
Components: P/B target: 32.70 | EV/EBITDA target: 5.61 | DCF target: 5.61
Damodaran Valuation
21/100
Low Damodaran score (21/100). ROIC (%1.2) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
39/100
High debt risk (39/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.0x — weak, fragile. Borç/EBITDA 8.1x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 48/100 | Debt Service: 34/100 | Quality: 36/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%1.2
ROIC (%1.2) cost of capitaln (39.5%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %39.5
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
0.20
DCF (0.20) current price %99.1 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 22.42
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.8509 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.17x
vs 1.74x
Compared to sector %33 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
70.7x
vs 11.1x
Compared to sector %538 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.2
vs %39.5 WACC
ROIC 38.3 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-22.5
vs %4.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-22.5
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.