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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
33/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
44/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.9913 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Valuation
Potential?
-1.1%
ROIC ?
-4.2%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
6824
2000-01-04 → 2026-09-02
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%38.1
VaR 95% ?
%4.07
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.70
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.31
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%44.7
23.10.2025 → 23.07.2026
Skewness ?
0.76
Parametrik%4.07
Historik%3.07
Cornish-Fisher%3.21
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (1888.00), TRAMA-99 line's %8.7 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 1888.0
TRAMA: 2068.971
Difference: %-8.7
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-0.6
Net profit margin %-0.6 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-7.6
ROE %-7.6 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%4.7
EBITDA margin %4.7 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin
%18.8
Gross profit per revenue %18.8. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%1.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %1.0'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
1.45x
Sector: 1.84x
PD/DD 1.45x — sector median (1.84x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
Sector: 3.6x
EV/EBITDA 5.2x — sector median's (3.6x) %43 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.03x
Current ratio 1.03x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.3x
Net Borç/EBITDA 3.3x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
1.96x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.96x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
3.0x
Interest coverage 3.0x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+1.0
Revenue YoY %1.0 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+1.1
Loss %1.1 decreased — improvement continues.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
44/100
Moderate robustness (44/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-1.1%
Minus %1.1 expected value (1866.47) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 2371.23 | EV/EBITDA target: 1320.34
Damodaran Valuation
33/100
Low Damodaran score (33/100). ROIC (%-4.2) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik).
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
44/100
High debt risk (44/100). Interest coverage ratio 3.0x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 3.3x — manageable.
Leverage: 40/100 | Debt Service: 57/100 | Quality: 40/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%-4.2
ROIC (%-4.2) cost of capitaln (13.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %13.0
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.9913 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.45x
vs 1.84x
Compared to sector %21 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
vs 3.6x
Compared to sector %43 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-4.2
vs %13.0 WACC
ROIC 17.2 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-0.6
vs %4.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-0.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
PIK — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.