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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
43/100
Dalio Risk ?
78/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.5562 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
69%
Valuation
Potential?
-16.0%
ROIC ?
10.9%
DCF Value ?
268.57
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
338
2025-04-09 → 2026-09-02
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%22.7
VaR 95% ?
%2.43
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.40
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.45
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%27.5
21.04.2026 → 14.07.2026
Skewness ?
-0.80
Parametrik%2.43
Historik%2.51
Cornish-Fisher%2.38
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (310.00), TRAMA-99 line's %15.4 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 310.0
TRAMA: 366.3032
Difference: %-15.4
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-0.8
Net profit margin %-0.8 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-1.9
ROE %-1.9 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%7.6
EBITDA margin %7.6 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%4.3
Gross profit per revenue %4.3. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%6.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %6.6'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
5.13x
Sector: 3.42x
PD/DD 5.13x — sector median's (3.42x) %50 above.
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
Sector: 15.9x
EV/EBITDA 20.1x — sector median's (15.9x) %26 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.19x
Current ratio 1.19x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.2x
Net Borç/EBITDA 1.2x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.30x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
15.4x
Interest coverage 15.4x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+0.0
Revenue YoY %0.0 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+0.0
Loss %0.0 increased — losses deepening.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
45/100
Moderate robustness (45/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-16.0%
Minus %16.0 expected value (260.28) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %69.
Components: P/B target: 205.19 | EV/EBITDA target: 246.18 | DCF target: 268.57
Damodaran Valuation
43/100
Low Damodaran score (43/100). ROIC (%10.9) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
78/100
Low debt risk (78/100). Interest coverage ratio 15.4x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 1.2x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 89/100 | Debt Service: 80/100 | Quality: 47/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%10.9
ROIC (%10.9) cost of capitaln (12.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %12.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
268.57
DCF (268.57) current price %13.4 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 310.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met.
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.5562 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
5.13x
vs 3.42x
Compared to sector %50 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
vs 15.9x
Compared to sector %26 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%10.9
vs %12.8 WACC
ROIC 1.9 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-0.8
vs %7.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-0.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
LES — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.