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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
27/100
Dalio Risk ?
61/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1327 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Valuation
Potential?
-16.9%
ROIC ?
9.6%
DCF Value ?
8.72
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
9779
1988-07-01 → 2026-08-19
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%32.2
VaR 95% ?
%3.15
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.53
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.97
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%20.7
25.02.2026 → 07.07.2026
Skewness ?
-0.04
Parametrik%3.15
Historik%3.33
Cornish-Fisher%3.17
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (473.50), TRAMA-99 line (478.07) at close levels (%-1.0). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 473.5
TRAMA: 478.0652
Difference: %-1.0
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-2.7
Net profit margin %-2.7 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
EBITDA Margin
%1.1
EBITDA margin %1.1 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin
%25.9
Gross profit per revenue %25.9. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%15.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %15.3'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
1.02x
Sector: 1.64x
PD/DD 1.02x — sector median's (1.64x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
78.9x
Sector: 7.5x
EV/EBITDA 78.9x — sector median's (7.5x) %955 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.79x
Current ratio 2.79x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
12.2x
Net Borç/EBITDA 12.2x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.15x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
0.7x
Interest coverage 0.7x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
No balance sheet data
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
38/100
Weak robustness (38/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-16.9%
Minus %16.9 expected value (393.36) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %64.
Components: P/B target: 762.09 | EV/EBITDA target: 118.38 | DCF target: 118.38
Damodaran Valuation
27/100
Low Damodaran score (27/100). ROIC (%9.6) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
61/100
Moderate debt risk (61/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.7x — weak, fragile. Borç/EBITDA 12.2x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 48/100 | Debt Service: 59/100 | Quality: 40/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%9.6
ROIC (%9.6) cost of capitaln (15.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %15.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
8.72
DCF (8.72) current price %98.2 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 473.50
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1327 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.02x
vs 1.64x
Compared to sector %38 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
78.9x
vs 7.5x
Compared to sector %955 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%9.6
vs %15.0 WACC
ROIC 5.4 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
HTG — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.