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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
49/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır; DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
81/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.0824 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
56%
Valuation
Potential?
+29.8%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
2953
2015-02-03 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%75.6
VaR 95% ?
%7.75
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.99
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.45
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%60.0
31.10.2025 → 30.06.2026
Skewness ?
0.43
Parametrik%7.75
Historik%7.88
Cornish-Fisher%7.13
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 105.4% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 95.2% — insufficient pricing power
Reel ROE %-2.1 — enflasyon düzeltmesinden sonra zarar
Yıllık %31 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺-22M | ₺-23M | %-105.4 | ₺47M | ₺51M | %-2.1 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺365M | ₺430M | %+225.2 | ₺901M | ₺1.1B | %39.0 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-100M | ₺-132M | %-128.1 | ₺65M | ₺86M | %-14.8 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-337M | ₺-472M | %-249.3 | ₺-37M | ₺-52M | %-64.3 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺205M | ₺316M | %-24.2 | ₺205M | ₺315M | %29.3 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-254M | ₺-416M | %-140.1 | — | — | — |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺-582M | ₺-1.0B | — | — | — | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (2.42), TRAMA-99 line's %24.2 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 2.42
TRAMA: 3.1943
Difference: %-24.2
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-45.8
Net profit margin %-45.8 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -86.3 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%8.8
ROE %8.8 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%-43.1
EBITDA margin %-43.1 — operational loss.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%15.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %15.8'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.5x
Sector: 15.3x
F/K 8.5x — sector median's (15.3x) %44 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
0.68x
Sector: 1.09x
PD/DD 0.68x — sector median's (1.09x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
4.46x
Current ratio 4.46x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Debt / Equity
0.00x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
-33.3x
Interest coverage -33.3x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+226.7
Revenue YoY %226.7 grew (2026/3) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+93.6
Loss %93.6 decreased — improvement continues.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
72/100
Very strong robustness score (72/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+29.8%
Plus %29.8 expected value (3.18) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %56.
Components: PE target: 3.38 | P/B target: 3.96
Damodaran Valuation
49/100
Low Damodaran score (49/100). DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır; DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik).
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
81/100
Low debt risk (81/100). Interest coverage ratio -33.3x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 43/100
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.0824 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
8.5x
vs 15.3x
Sector mediannın %44 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.68x
vs 1.09x
Compared to sector %38 cheaper (by book value)
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%36.8
vs %-9.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %36.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ KAP alım ·
▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
HDFGS — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.