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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
44/100
Dalio Risk ?
52/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
€38.2
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Valuation
Potential?
+7.9%
ROIC ?
5.2%
DCF Value ?
56.33
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
7105
1998-11-09 → 2026-08-19
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%23.6
VaR 95% ?
%2.44
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.45
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.50
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%32.0
17.02.2026 → 01.06.2026
Skewness ?
-0.26
Parametrik%2.44
Historik%2.63
Cornish-Fisher%2.52
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (46.99), TRAMA-99 line's %8.0 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 46.99
TRAMA: 43.5
Difference: %+8.0
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%5.9
Net profit margin %5.9 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +1.9 point increase.
EBITDA Margin
%14.8
EBITDA margin %14.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%26.1
Gross profit per revenue %26.1. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%5.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %5.6'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.5x
Sector: 20.7x
F/K 23.5x — sector median's (20.7x) %14 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
1.45x
Sector: 2.03x
PD/DD 1.45x — sector median (2.03x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
Sector: 10.5x
EV/EBITDA 10.9x — sector median's (10.5x) %4 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.31x
Current ratio 1.31x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.7x
Net Borç/EBITDA 3.7x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
0.70x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.70x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
6.0x
Interest coverage 6.0x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+2.6
Revenue YoY %2.6 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+188.5
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2025/6). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
62/100
Good robustness (62/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+7.9%
Plus %7.9 expected value (50.70) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 43.91 | P/B target: 67.35 | EV/EBITDA target: 44.99 | DCF target: 56.33
Damodaran Valuation
44/100
Low Damodaran score (44/100). ROIC (%5.2) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
52/100
Moderate debt risk (52/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.0x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 3.7x — manageable.
Leverage: 45/100 | Debt Service: 83/100 | Quality: 51/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%5.2
ROIC (%5.2) cost of capitaln (7.1%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
56.33
DCF (56.33) near current price (%+19.9) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 46.99
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
€38.2
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %18.7 üzerinde (€38.2) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
23.5x
vs 20.7x
Sector mediannın %14 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.45x
vs 2.03x
Compared to sector %29 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
vs 10.5x
Compared to sector %4 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%5.2
vs %7.1 WACC
ROIC 1.9 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%5.1
vs %15.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %5.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
FRE — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.