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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
20/100
Dalio Risk ?
57/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.1633 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
59%
Valuation
Potential?
+0.4%
ROIC ?
3.3%
DCF Value ?
0.63
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
1526
2020-08-06 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%41.2
VaR 95% ?
%4.21
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.98
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.58
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%23.8
19.09.2025 → 28.11.2025
Skewness ?
0.19
Parametrik%4.21
Historik%4.09
Cornish-Fisher%3.93
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 128.6% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue +54.5% — sales growing above inflation
Real gross margin 12.1% → 16.3% (expanded)
Reel ROE %-1.7 — enflasyon düzeltmesinden sonra zarar
Yıllık %35 enflasyona rağmen reel büyüme devam ediyor
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-7M | ₺-9M | %-128.6 | ₺275M | ₺363M | %-1.7 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺22M | ₺31M | %-86.5 | ₺168M | ₺235M | %5.9 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺-151M | ₺-232M | %-479.0 | ₺166M | ₺256M | %-33.9 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺37M | ₺61M | %-47.7 | ₺115M | ₺188M | %10.5 |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺66M | ₺117M | — | ₺202M | ₺360M | %20.6 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (15.49), TRAMA-99 line (14.80) at close levels (%+4.7). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 15.49
TRAMA: 14.7954
Difference: %+4.7
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-2.5
Net profit margin %-2.5 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -15.8 point decrease.
EBITDA Margin
%5.2
EBITDA margin %5.2 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%16.3
Gross profit per revenue %16.3. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%4.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %4.3'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
0.81x
Sector: 1.92x
PD/DD 0.81x — sector median's (1.92x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
33.2x
Sector: 8.2x
EV/EBITDA 33.2x — sector median's (8.2x) %304 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.73x
Current ratio 1.73x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.5x
Net Borç/EBITDA 2.5x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.07x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
4.0x
Interest coverage 4.0x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+36.1
Revenue YoY %36.1 grew (2025/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-110.4
Net profit YoY %-110.4 declined (2025/6) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
49/100
Moderate robustness (49/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+0.4%
Plus %0.4 expected value (15.57) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %59.
Components: P/B target: 36.73 | EV/EBITDA target: 3.88 | DCF target: 3.88
Damodaran Valuation
20/100
Low Damodaran score (20/100). ROIC (%3.3) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
57/100
Moderate debt risk (57/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.0x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 2.5x — manageable.
Leverage: 78/100 | Debt Service: 81/100 | Quality: 39/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%3.3
ROIC (%3.3) cost of capitaln (40.4%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %40.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
0.63
DCF (0.63) current price %95.9 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 15.50
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.1633 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
0.81x
vs 1.92x
Compared to sector %58 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
33.2x
vs 8.2x
Compared to sector %304 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%3.3
vs %40.4 WACC
ROIC 37.1 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-13.5
vs %5.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-13.5
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ KAP alım ·
▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.