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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
62/100
Dalio Risk ?
79/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); gross profit, prev year gross profit, prev year revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
₺14.8
Ucuz
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
+116.0%
ROIC ?
56.1%
DCF Value ?
10.11
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
6716
2000-07-24 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%62.4
VaR 95% ?
%6.17
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.85
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.57
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%37.0
04.03.2026 → 31.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.68
Parametrik%6.17
Historik%4.93
Cornish-Fisher%5.32
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 89.5% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 74.4% — insufficient pricing power
Yıllık %31 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺133M | ₺142M | %-89.5 | ₺469M | ₺502M | %14.0 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺1.1B | ₺1.3B | %+547195.7 | ₺1.7B | ₺2.0B | %137.8 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺-200,369 | ₺-246,231 | %-109.0 | ₺427,696 | ₺525,590 | %-0.0 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺2M | ₺3M | %-66.9 | ₺456,507 | ₺603,094 | %0.4 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺6M | ₺8M | %-98.0 | ₺557,309 | ₺780,490 | %1.3 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺-264M | ₺-406M | %-3590.2 | ₺368M | ₺568M | — |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-7M | ₺-12M | %-199.3 | — | — | — |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺-7M | ₺-12M | — | — | — | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (5.13), TRAMA-99 line's %11.4 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 5.13
TRAMA: 4.6058
Difference: %+11.4
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%28.3
Net profit margin %28.3 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter -40.3 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%35.9
ROE %35.9 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%28.4
EBITDA margin %28.4 — operationally very efficient.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-0.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-0.0'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
2.9x
Sector: 24.5x
F/K 2.9x — sector median's (24.5x) %88 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
0.97x
Sector: 2.55x
PD/DD 0.97x — sector median's (2.55x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
2.9x
Sector: 8.1x
EV/EBITDA 2.9x — sector median's (8.1x) %65 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.40x
Current ratio 0.40x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Debt / Equity
0.00x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
3713.6x
Interest coverage 3713.6x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+84053.6
Revenue YoY %84053.6 grew (2026/3) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+2159.3
Net profit YoY %2159.3 increased (2026/3) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 440.4M). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit -3.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
79/100
Very strong robustness score (79/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+116.0%
Plus %116.0 expected value (11.21) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 15.57 | P/B target: 14.02 | EV/EBITDA target: 14.77 | DCF target: 10.11
Damodaran Valuation
62/100
Moderate Damodaran score (62/100). ROIC (%56.1) – WACC (%48.0) farkı +8.1 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
79/100
Low debt risk (79/100). Interest coverage ratio 3713.6x — strong.
Leverage: 100/100 | Debt Service: 60/100 | Quality: 62/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%56.1
ROIC (%56.1) cost of capital 8.1 puan aşıyor → company creates value.
WACC: %48.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
10.11
DCF modeli 10.11 target value produced — compared to current price %94.8 undervalued.
Current price: 5.19
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); gross profit, prev year gross profit, prev year revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺14.8
Graham value (₺14.8) current price %185.2 above — attractive for value investing.
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
2.9x
vs 24.5x
Sector mediannın %88 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.97x
vs 2.55x
Compared to sector %62 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
2.9x
vs 8.1x
Compared to sector %65 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%56.1
vs %48.0 WACC
ROIC 8.1 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%59.9
vs %59.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %59.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.