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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
24/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
37/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.6100 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Valuation
Potential?
-15.6%
ROIC ?
-12.6%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
6768
2000-05-10 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%86.8
VaR 95% ?
%9.03
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%12.75
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%12.60
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%61.7
05.02.2026 → 21.07.2026
Skewness ?
-2.01
Parametrik%9.03
Historik%9.79
Cornish-Fisher%10.01
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 78.7% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue +33.7% — sales growing above inflation
Real gross margin 1.1% → 11.7% (expanded)
Yıllık %31 enflasyona rağmen reel büyüme devam ediyor
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺25M | ₺27M | %-78.7 | ₺724M | ₺775M | %8.7 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺-107M | ₺-125M | %-388.7 | ₺492M | ₺580M | %-45.7 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺-35M | ₺-43M | %-121.0 | ₺551M | ₺677M | %-14.3 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-157M | ₺-207M | %-217.9 | ₺509M | ₺672M | %-38228.6 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-125M | ₺-176M | %-165.8 | ₺540M | ₺756M | %-335.8 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-163M | ₺-267M | %-3249.0 | — | — | — |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺-5M | ₺-8M | — | — | — | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (21.50), TRAMA-99 line's %41.7 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 21.5
TRAMA: 36.8528
Difference: %-41.7
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%3.4
Net profit margin %3.4 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +25.1 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-11.3
ROE %-11.3 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%19.4
EBITDA margin %19.4 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%11.7
Gross profit per revenue %11.7. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%37.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %37.6'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
3.42x
Sector: 2.56x
PD/DD 3.42x — sector median's (2.56x) %34 above.
EV/EBITDA
21.4x
Sector: 15.3x
EV/EBITDA 21.4x — sector median's (15.3x) %40 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.62x
Current ratio 0.62x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.8x
Net Borç/EBITDA 1.8x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.32x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
1.6x
Interest coverage 1.6x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+34.1
Revenue YoY %34.1 grew (2026/3) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+119.9
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/3). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
25/100
Very weak robustness (25/100). Multiple critical indicators are red: high debt, low profitability or excessive valuation.
Very Weak
Potential
-15.6%
Minus %15.6 expected value (19.41) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 15.51 | EV/EBITDA target: 16.42
Damodaran Valuation
24/100
Low Damodaran score (24/100). ROIC (%-12.6) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik).
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
37/100
High debt risk (37/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.6x — weak, fragile. Borç/EBITDA 1.8x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 85/100 | Debt Service: 35/100 | Quality: 16/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%-12.6
ROIC (%-12.6) cost of capitaln (42.3%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %42.3
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -1.6100 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
3.42x
vs 2.56x
Compared to sector %34 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
21.4x
vs 15.3x
Compared to sector %40 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-12.6
vs %42.3 WACC
ROIC 54.9 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-12.0
vs %8.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-12.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ KAP alım ·
▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.