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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
60/100
Dalio Risk ?
89/100
Piotroski ?
7/9
Strong
Graham ?
A$13.6
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
-2.6%
ROIC ?
28.1%
DCF Value ?
28.41
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
8243
1994-05-31 → 2026-09-02
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%23.8
VaR 95% ?
%2.42
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.44
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.45
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%26.5
16.09.2025 → 20.03.2026
Skewness ?
-0.09
Parametrik%2.42
Historik%2.71
Cornish-Fisher%2.43
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (40.86), TRAMA-99 line (39.58) at close levels (%+3.2). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 40.86000061035156
TRAMA: 39.5804
Difference: %+3.2
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%19.0
Net profit margin %19.0 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%27.1
ROE %27.1 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%33.9
EBITDA margin %33.9 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%28.2
Gross profit per revenue %28.2. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%24.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %24.6'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.5x
Sector: 37.2x
F/K 26.5x — sector medianna (37.2x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
7.16x
Sector: 3.65x
PD/DD 7.16x — sector median's %96 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
Sector: 16.2x
EV/EBITDA 15.6x — sector median (16.2x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.52x
Current ratio 2.52x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.5x
Net Borç/EBITDA 1.5x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.74x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.74x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
13.1x
Interest coverage 13.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+4.6
Revenue YoY %4.6 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+1.9
Net profit YoY %1.9 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 213.4M). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 183.2M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
72/100
Very strong robustness score (72/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
-2.6%
Minus %2.6 expected value (38.73) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 58.74 | P/B target: 21.90 | EV/EBITDA target: 41.43 | DCF target: 28.41
Damodaran Valuation
60/100
Moderate Damodaran score (60/100). ROIC (%28.1) – WACC (%11.6) farkı +16.5 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
89/100
Low debt risk (89/100). Interest coverage ratio 13.1x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 1.5x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 66/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 100/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%28.1
ROIC (%28.1) cost of capital 16.5 puan aşıyor → company creates value.
WACC: %11.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
28.41
DCF (28.41) current price %28.5 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 39.76
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met.
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
A$13.6
Graham intrinsic value: A$13.6. Pahalı
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
26.5x
vs 37.2x
Sector mediannın %29 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
7.16x
vs 3.65x
Compared to sector %96 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
vs 16.2x
Compared to sector %4 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%28.1
vs %11.6 WACC
ROIC 16.5 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%19.0
vs %34.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %19.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
CPU — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.