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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
57/100
Dalio Risk ?
51/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
prev year gross profit, prev year revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1650 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Valuation
Potential?
+10.1%
ROIC ?
9.9%
DCF Value ?
168.39
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
7600
1996-12-16 → 2026-08-19
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%41.1
VaR 95% ?
%4.27
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.04
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.92
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%29.9
26.08.2025 → 15.10.2025
Skewness ?
-3.30
Parametrik%4.27
Historik%3.00
Cornish-Fisher%4.18
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (66.98), TRAMA-99 line (68.34) at close levels (%-2.0). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 66.98
TRAMA: 68.3355
Difference: %-2.0
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.5
Net profit margin %4.5 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +4.2 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-13.0
ROE %-13.0 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%15.3
EBITDA margin %15.3 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%29.4
Gross profit per revenue %29.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%6.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %6.8'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
3.06x
Sector: 1.27x
PD/DD 3.06x — sector median's %141 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
9.9x
Sector: 7.8x
EV/EBITDA 9.9x — sector median's (7.8x) %27 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.25x
Current ratio 1.25x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.5x
Net Borç/EBITDA 3.5x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
1.51x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.51x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
6.5x
Interest coverage 6.5x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-10.4
Revenue YoY %-10.4 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+194.1
Net profit YoY %194.1 increased (2026/3) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 405.5M). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit -135.0M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
55/100
Good robustness (55/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+10.1%
Plus %10.1 expected value (73.71) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %64.
Components: P/B target: 29.77 | EV/EBITDA target: 52.50 | DCF target: 168.39
Damodaran Valuation
57/100
Moderate Damodaran score (57/100). ROIC (%9.9) – WACC (%8.0) farkı +1.9 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
51/100
Moderate debt risk (51/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.5x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 3.5x — manageable.
Leverage: 45/100 | Debt Service: 81/100 | Quality: 48/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%9.9
ROIC (%9.9) slightly exceeds cost of capital (1.9 puan) aşıyor.
WACC: %8.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
168.39
DCF modeli 168.39 target value produced — compared to current price %151.4 undervalued.
Current price: 66.98
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: prev year gross profit, prev year revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1650 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
3.06x
vs 1.27x
Compared to sector %141 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
9.9x
vs 7.8x
Compared to sector %27 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%9.9
vs %8.0 WACC
ROIC 1.9 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-0.2
vs %9.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-0.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
CON — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.