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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
64/100
Dalio Risk ?
72/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
€38.9
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
+53.9%
ROIC ?
13.5%
DCF Value ?
174.03
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
7047
1999-01-28 → 2026-08-19
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Düşük
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%18.8
VaR 95% ?
%1.98
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%2.79
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.62
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%19.6
22.08.2025 → 21.01.2026
Skewness ?
-0.52
Parametrik%1.98
Historik%1.55
Cornish-Fisher%1.42
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (37.79), TRAMA-99 line (38.00) at close levels (%-0.6). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 37.79
TRAMA: 38.0037
Difference: %-0.6
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%6.0
Net profit margin %6.0 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +1.3 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%4.2
ROE %4.2 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%9.6
EBITDA margin %9.6 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%61.2
Gross profit per revenue %61.2. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%13.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %13.0'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.6x
Sector: 20.6x
F/K 11.6x — sector median's (20.6x) %43 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
1.83x
Sector: 2.30x
PD/DD 1.83x — sector median (2.30x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
Sector: 8.2x
EV/EBITDA 6.7x — sector median (8.2x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.97x
Current ratio 2.97x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.7x
Net Borç/EBITDA 1.7x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.62x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.62x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
8.7x
Interest coverage 8.7x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-3.9
Revenue YoY %-3.9 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+7.3
Net profit YoY %7.3 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
76/100
Very strong robustness score (76/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+53.9%
Plus %53.9 expected value (58.17) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 61.28 | P/B target: 49.51 | EV/EBITDA target: 46.09 | DCF target: 113.37
Damodaran Valuation
64/100
Moderate Damodaran score (64/100). ROIC (%13.5) – WACC (%9.1) farkı +4.4 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
72/100
Low debt risk (72/100). Interest coverage ratio 8.7x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 1.7x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 75/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 81/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%13.5
ROIC (%13.5) slightly exceeds cost of capital (4.4 puan) aşıyor.
WACC: %9.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
174.03
DCF modeli 174.03 target value produced — compared to current price %360.5 undervalued.
Current price: 37.79
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
€38.9
Graham value (€38.9) near current price (%+2.9). In fair price zone.
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
11.6x
vs 20.6x
Sector mediannın %43 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.83x
vs 2.30x
Compared to sector %20 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
vs 8.2x
Compared to sector %18 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%13.5
vs %9.1 WACC
ROIC 4.4 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%5.3
vs %11.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %5.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
BOSS — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.