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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
60/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
35/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
53/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
prev year gross profit, prev year revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1231 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Lothien Robustness Summary
35/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (35/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 4 | Negatif: 8 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -₺5M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-111.6 geriledi (₺46M → -₺5M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+83.7 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-3.3 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %13.8 → %7.0 (-6.8 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-66.8 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.53. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 5.4. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-0.3. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Reel Kâr Eriyor
Enflasyon düzeltmesi sonrası reel kâr %-110.9 düştü. Nominal artış enflasyonu karşılamıyor.
Mevsimsel Etki
Çeyreklik düşüş (%-111.6) ama yıllık bazda artış (%+83.7). Bu muhtemelen mevsimsel bir düşüş.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-49.0 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-30 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-30
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%51.9
VaR 95% ?
%5.50
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.73
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.56
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%57.1
06.07.2026 → 30.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.52
Parametrik%5.50
Historik%4.89
Cornish-Fisher%4.91
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+26.2%
ROIC ?
-0.1%
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-111.6 düşerek -5.4M TL oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+83.7
Hasılat çeyreklik %+4.6 büyüdü (1.8B TL)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%-3.3)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %7.0
Brüt marj değişimi: %-6.8 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-0.3 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-66.8 düştü (65.1M TL)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %3.7
Toplam borç: 1.1B TL
Net borç: 610.3M TL
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.33x
Cari oran: 1.21x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-16.1 azaldı → 468.7M TL
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 134.8M TL
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 99.5M TL
ROE negatif: %-0.2 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-0.1
Toplam varlıklar %+7.0 büyüdü → 7.0B TL
Özkaynak %+6.5 arttı → 3.3B TL
İşletme kârı negatif: -52.6M TL — faaliyet zararı
Faiz karşılama oranı: 1.9x (Faiz: 33.6M TL)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 72.0M TL
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 581.3M TL
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+7.7
CAPEX: 35.3M TL (Hasılatın %2.0'i)
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-24.2 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 31.68 TL
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 110.9% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real gross margin 13.8% → 7.0% (contracted)
Reel özkaynak son 40 çeyrekte %89 arttı — gerçek sermaye birikimi
Reel ROE %-0.7 — enflasyon düzeltmesinden sonra zarar
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/6 | %32 | ×1.00 | ₺-5M | ₺-5M | %-110.9 | ₺1.8B | ₺1.8B | %-0.7 |
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺46M | ₺50M | %+65.4 | ₺1.7B | ₺1.8B | %6.0 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺-25M | ₺-30M | %-200.1 | ₺1.5B | ₺1.8B | %-3.7 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺-24M | ₺-30M | %-168.7 | ₺1.5B | ₺1.8B | %-3.5 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-33M | ₺-44M | %-127.4 | ₺1.8B | ₺2.4B | %-5.1 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-113M | ₺-159M | %-210.8 | ₺1.5B | ₺2.1B | %-18.3 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺-93M | ₺-143M | %-172.4 | ₺1.2B | ₺1.8B | %-12.2 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-121M | ₺-198M | %-164.8 | ₺1.6B | ₺2.7B | %-21.0 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-0.3
Net profit margin %-0.3 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -3.1 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-0.3
ROE %-0.3 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%3.7
EBITDA margin %3.7 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin
%7.0
Gross profit per revenue %7.0. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%3.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %3.6'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
0.53x
Sector: 1.04x
PD/DD 0.53x — sector median's (1.04x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
Sector: 5.7x
EV/EBITDA 5.4x — sector median (5.7x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.21x
Current ratio 1.21x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.5x
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.5x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.33x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
4.5x
Interest coverage 4.5x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-3.3
Revenue YoY %-3.3 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+83.7
Loss %83.7 decreased — improvement continues.
Seasonality Analysis
Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit -10.5M). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit -72.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
60/100
Good robustness (60/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+26.2%
Plus %26.2 expected value (30.28) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 47.15 | EV/EBITDA target: 25.48
Damodaran Valuation
35/100
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
53/100
Moderate debt risk (53/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.5x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 2.5x — manageable.
Leverage: 74/100 | Debt Service: 71/100 | Quality: 31/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-0.1
ROIC (%-0.1) cost of capital (30.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %30.0
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: prev year gross profit, prev year revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1231 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
0.53x
vs 1.04x
Compared to sector %49 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
vs 5.7x
Compared to sector %6 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-0.1
vs %30.0 WACC
ROIC 30.0 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-0.1
vs %6.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-0.1
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (24.00), TRAMA-99 line's %24.2 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 24.00
TRAMA: 31.68
Difference: %-24.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ KAP satım ·
◆ KAP bildirim
— KAP açıklamaları (içsel bilgi / pay-alım-satım / önemli-pay sahipliği); resmî bildirim, gün-içi gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.