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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
59/100
Dalio Risk ?
34/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Graham ?
A$3.0
Ucuz
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Valuation
Potential?
+65.3%
ROIC ?
2.2%
DCF Value ?
9.11
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
2478
2016-11-16 → 2026-09-02
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%49.0
VaR 95% ?
%5.34
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.44
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.75
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%68.9
17.11.2025 → 27.08.2026
Skewness ?
0.38
Parametrik%5.34
Historik%4.93
Cornish-Fisher%4.87
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (1.51), TRAMA-99 line's %5.9 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 1.5099999904632568
TRAMA: 1.6054
Difference: %-5.9
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%1.2
Net profit margin %1.2 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%3.2
ROE %3.2 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%5.7
EBITDA margin %5.7 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%16.0
Gross profit per revenue %16.0. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%3.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %3.2'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.5x
Sector: 13.6x
F/K 9.5x — sector median's (13.6x) %30 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
0.62x
Sector: 3.32x
PD/DD 0.62x — sector median's (3.32x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
Sector: 5.1x
EV/EBITDA 8.7x — sector median's (5.1x) %70 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.78x
Current ratio 0.78x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
7.0x
Net Borç/EBITDA 7.0x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
2.20x
Borç/Özkaynak 2.20x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
2.4x
Interest coverage 2.4x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+8.3
Revenue YoY %8.3 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-46.0
Net profit YoY %-46.0 declined (2025/12) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
57/100
Good robustness (57/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+65.3%
Plus %65.3 expected value (2.43) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 1.99 | P/B target: 4.41 | EV/EBITDA target: 0.87 | DCF target: 4.41
Damodaran Valuation
59/100
Moderate Damodaran score (59/100). ROIC (%2.2) – WACC (%7.5) farkı -5.2 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
34/100
High debt risk (34/100). Interest coverage ratio 2.4x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 7.0x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 13/100 | Debt Service: 47/100 | Quality: 73/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%2.2
ROIC (%2.2) cost of capitaln (7.5%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.5
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
9.11
DCF modeli 9.11 target value produced — compared to current price %519.5 undervalued.
Current price: 1.47
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
A$3.0
Graham intrinsic value: A$3.0. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
9.5x
vs 13.6x
Sector mediannın %30 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.62x
vs 3.32x
Compared to sector %81 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
vs 5.1x
Compared to sector %70 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%2.2
vs %7.5 WACC
ROIC 5.2 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%1.2
vs %5.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %1.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
ASG — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.