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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
46/100
Dalio Risk ?
79/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Graham ?
A$3.9
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Valuation
Potential?
+27.3%
ROIC ?
0.7%
DCF Value ?
7.88
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
7046
1998-12-31 → 2026-09-02
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%63.9
VaR 95% ?
%6.80
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%9.54
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.17
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%61.3
14.01.2026 → 20.07.2026
Skewness ?
-0.07
Parametrik%6.80
Historik%5.52
Cornish-Fisher%6.33
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (4.19), TRAMA-99 line (4.08) at close levels (%+2.8). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 4.190000057220459
TRAMA: 4.0765
Difference: %+2.8
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.9
Net profit margin %4.9 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%3.4
ROE %3.4 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%11.0
EBITDA margin %11.0 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%12.6
Gross profit per revenue %12.6. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%11.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %11.6'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.4x
Sector: 15.9x
F/K 19.4x — sector median's (15.9x) %22 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
1.33x
Sector: 2.80x
PD/DD 1.33x — sector median's (2.80x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
7.1x
Sector: 5.6x
EV/EBITDA 7.1x — sector median's (5.6x) %27 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.88x
Current ratio 1.88x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.3x
Net Borç/EBITDA 1.3x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.20x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
11.0x
Interest coverage 11.0x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+24.1
Revenue YoY %24.1 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+503.2
Net profit YoY %503.2 increased (2025/12) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
64/100
Good robustness (64/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+27.3%
Plus %27.3 expected value (5.27) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 3.62 | P/B target: 8.92 | EV/EBITDA target: 3.26 | DCF target: 7.88
Damodaran Valuation
46/100
Low Damodaran score (46/100). ROIC (%0.7) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
79/100
Low debt risk (79/100). Interest coverage ratio 11.0x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 1.3x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 89/100 | Debt Service: 97/100 | Quality: 63/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%0.7
ROIC (%0.7) cost of capitaln (12.2%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %12.2
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
7.88
DCF modeli 7.88 target value produced — compared to current price %90.5 undervalued.
Current price: 4.14
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
A$3.9
Graham intrinsic value: A$3.9. Pahalı
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
19.4x
vs 15.9x
Sector mediannın %22 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.33x
vs 2.80x
Compared to sector %53 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
7.1x
vs 5.6x
Compared to sector %27 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%0.7
vs %12.2 WACC
ROIC 11.5 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.9
vs %11.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
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ASB — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.