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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
20/100
Dalio Risk ?
76/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
₺43.8
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Valuation
Potential?
-1.8%
ROIC ?
1.9%
DCF Value ?
10.07
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
588
2024-03-04 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%56.7
VaR 95% ?
%5.68
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.12
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.55
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%39.1
24.10.2025 → 14.01.2026
Skewness ?
0.62
Parametrik%5.68
Historik%5.32
Cornish-Fisher%4.97
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 83.9% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 15.2% — insufficient pricing power
Real gross margin 71.3% → 43.3% (contracted)
Yıllık %31 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺14M | ₺15M | %-83.9 | ₺75M | ₺81M | %2.3 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺78M | ₺92M | %+315.1 | ₺81M | ₺95M | %14.3 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺18M | ₺22M | %-72.8 | ₺148M | ₺182M | %3.3 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺62M | ₺82M | %-39.1 | ₺257M | ₺340M | %12.1 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺96M | ₺134M | %+47.9 | ₺161M | ₺225M | %20.5 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺55M | ₺91M | — | — | — | — |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (39.44), TRAMA-99 line (38.19) at close levels (%+3.3). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 39.44
TRAMA: 38.189
Difference: %+3.3
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%18.4
Net profit margin %18.4 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter -78.7 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%4.8
ROE %4.8 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%116.9
EBITDA margin %116.9 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%43.3
Gross profit per revenue %43.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-26.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-26.1'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.6x
Sector: 17.1x
F/K 16.6x — sector medianna (17.1x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
1.18x
Sector: 1.48x
PD/DD 1.18x — sector median (1.48x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 5.4x — sector median (7.6x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
3.69x
Current ratio 3.69x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.9x
Net Borç/EBITDA 0.9x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.21x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
4.7x
Interest coverage 4.7x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-53.1
Revenue YoY %-53.1 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-85.6
Net profit YoY %-85.6 declined (2026/3) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
49/100
Moderate robustness (49/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-1.8%
Minus %1.8 expected value (40.16) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 35.19 | P/B target: 52.20 | EV/EBITDA target: 56.89 | DCF target: 10.22
Damodaran Valuation
20/100
Low Damodaran score (20/100). ROIC (%1.9) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
76/100
Low debt risk (76/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.7x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 0.9x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 89/100 | Debt Service: 92/100 | Quality: 79/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%1.9
ROIC (%1.9) cost of capitaln (40.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %40.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
10.07
DCF (10.07) current price %75.4 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 40.90
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺43.8
Graham value (₺43.8) near current price (%+7.1). In fair price zone.
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
16.6x
vs 17.1x
Sector mediannın %3 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.18x
vs 1.48x
Compared to sector %20 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
vs 7.6x
Compared to sector %28 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.9
vs %40.8 WACC
ROIC 38.9 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ KAP satım ·
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.