Real net profit fell 83.9% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 15.2% — insufficient pricing power
Real gross margin 71.3% → 43.3% (contracted)
Yıllık %31 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter |
CPI YoY |
Deflator |
Nominal Net Profit |
Real Net Profit |
Real Growth |
Nominal Revenue |
Real Revenue |
Reel ROE |
| 2026/3 |
%31 |
×1.07 |
₺14M |
₺15M |
%-83.9 |
₺75M |
₺81M |
%2.3 |
| 2025/12 |
%31 |
×1.18 |
₺78M |
₺92M |
%+315.1 |
₺81M |
₺95M |
%14.3 |
| 2025/9 |
%33 |
×1.23 |
₺18M |
₺22M |
%-72.8 |
₺148M |
₺182M |
%3.3 |
| 2025/6 |
%35 |
×1.32 |
₺62M |
₺82M |
%-39.1 |
₺257M |
₺340M |
%12.1 |
| 2025/3 |
%38 |
×1.40 |
₺96M |
₺134M |
%+47.9 |
₺161M |
₺225M |
%20.5 |
| 2024/9 |
%49 |
×1.64 |
₺55M |
₺91M |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (39.44), TRAMA-99 line (38.19) at close levels (%+3.3). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 39.44
TRAMA: 38.189
Difference: %+3.3
Net Profit Margin
%18.4
Net profit margin %18.4 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter -78.7 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%4.8
ROE %4.8 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%116.9
EBITDA margin %116.9 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%43.3
Gross profit per revenue %43.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-26.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-26.1'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
P/E Ratio
16.6x
Sector: 17.1x
F/K 16.6x — sector medianna (17.1x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
1.18x
Sector: 1.48x
PD/DD 1.18x — sector median (1.48x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
Sector: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA 5.4x — sector median (7.6x) in line.
Current Ratio
3.69x
Current ratio 3.69x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.9x
Net Borç/EBITDA 0.9x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.21x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
4.7x
Interest coverage 4.7x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-53.1
Revenue YoY %-53.1 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-85.6
Net profit YoY %-85.6 declined (2026/3) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
49/100
Moderate robustness (49/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-1.8%
Minus %1.8 expected value (40.16) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 35.19 | P/B target: 52.20 | EV/EBITDA target: 56.89 | DCF target: 10.22
Damodaran Valuation
20/100
Low Damodaran score (20/100). ROIC (%1.9) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
76/100
Low debt risk (76/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.7x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 0.9x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 89/100 | Debt Service: 92/100 | Quality: 79/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%1.9
ROIC (%1.9) cost of capitaln (40.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %40.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
10.07
DCF (10.07) current price %75.4 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 40.90
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺43.8
Graham value (₺43.8) near current price (%+7.1). In fair price zone.
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
Sector mediannın %3 below — cheap
Compared to sector %20 cheaper (by book value)
Compared to sector %28 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC 38.9 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Analyst Views and Target Price — external source
Bu bölümdeki dereceler ve hedef fiyat, aracı kurum analistlerinin kendi
beyanlarıdır; Lothien'in görüşü değildir ve doğrulanmamıştır.
This is not investment advice.
ARTMS — Participation Finance Compliance
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