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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
36/100
Dalio Risk ?
80/100
Piotroski ?
8/9
Strong
Graham ?
₺147.5
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Valuation
Potential?
+33.1%
ROIC ?
27.9%
DCF Value ?
61.88
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
1210
2021-11-11 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%42.2
VaR 95% ?
%4.01
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.82
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.41
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%18.6
16.07.2026 → 13.08.2026
Skewness ?
0.83
Parametrik%4.01
Historik%3.52
Cornish-Fisher%3.27
Return Distribution
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 54.7% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 31.2% — insufficient pricing power
Real gross margin 31.4% → 39.4% (expanded)
Reel özkaynak son 26 çeyrekte %417 arttı — gerçek sermaye birikimi
Yıllık %31 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺439M | ₺469M | %-54.7 | ₺10.4B | ₺11.1B | %7.8 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺880M | ₺1.0B | %+40.0 | ₺13.7B | ₺16.2B | %16.0 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺602M | ₺740M | %-27.9 | ₺8.8B | ₺10.8B | %13.0 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺778M | ₺1.0B | %+257.6 | ₺5.5B | ₺7.3B | %18.0 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺205M | ₺287M | %+55.0 | ₺8.0B | ₺11.2B | %5.3 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺-120M | ₺-185M | %-128.3 | ₺12.1B | ₺18.7B | %-2.6 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺-400M | ₺-654M | %-138.3 | ₺15.4B | ₺25.2B | %-12.1 |
| 2024/6 | %72 | ×1.78 | ₺959M | ₺1.7B | %+282.2 | ₺14.2B | ₺25.3B | %30.2 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (117.90), TRAMA-99 line (113.24) at close levels (%+4.1). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 117.9
TRAMA: 113.239
Difference: %+4.1
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.2
Net profit margin %4.2 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -2.2 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%12.2
ROE %12.2 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%27.6
EBITDA margin %27.6 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%39.4
Gross profit per revenue %39.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%8.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %8.4'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.1x
Sector: 16.7x
F/K 11.1x — sector median's (16.7x) %33 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
1.34x
Sector: 1.46x
PD/DD 1.34x — sector median (1.46x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
3.4x
Sector: 9.0x
EV/EBITDA 3.4x — sector median's (9.0x) %62 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.06x
Current ratio 2.06x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.3x
Net Borç/EBITDA 0.3x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.13x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
1.7x
Interest coverage 1.7x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+30.2
Revenue YoY %30.2 grew (2026/3) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+113.9
Net profit YoY %113.9 increased (2026/3) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 2.1B). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 101.5M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
69/100
Good robustness (69/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+33.1%
Plus %33.1 expected value (159.98) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 167.56 | P/B target: 134.38 | EV/EBITDA target: 316.87 | DCF target: 61.88
Damodaran Valuation
36/100
Low Damodaran score (36/100). ROIC (%27.9) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
80/100
Low debt risk (80/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.7x — weak, fragile. Borç/EBITDA 0.3x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 97/100 | Debt Service: 71/100 | Quality: 67/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%27.9
ROIC (%27.9) cost of capitaln (39.1%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %39.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
61.88
DCF (61.88) current price %48.5 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 120.20
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
8/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (8/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met.
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺147.5
Graham value (₺147.5) current price %22.7 above — attractive for value investing.
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
11.1x
vs 16.7x
Sector mediannın %33 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.34x
vs 1.46x
Compared to sector %8 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
3.4x
vs 9.0x
Compared to sector %62 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%27.9
vs %39.1 WACC
ROIC 11.1 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%7.0
vs %23.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %7.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.