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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
17/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır
Dalio Risk ?
72/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Graham ?
A$3.5
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
-40.7%
DCF Value ?
1.40
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
9613
1988-01-29 → 2026-08-31
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%34.2
VaR 95% ?
%3.45
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.91
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.82
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%30.2
02.03.2026 → 30.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.12
Parametrik%3.45
Historik%3.41
Cornish-Fisher%3.29
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (5.04), TRAMA-99 line (5.02) at close levels (%+0.5). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 5.04
TRAMA: 5.0169
Difference: %+0.5
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%53.2
Net profit margin %53.2 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%11.1
ROE %11.1 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%80.1
EBITDA margin %80.1 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%61.8
Gross profit per revenue %61.8. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%32.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %32.0'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.9x
Sector: 9.0x
F/K 23.9x — sector median's (9.0x) %165 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
2.64x
Sector: 2.35x
PD/DD 2.64x — sector median's (2.35x) %12 above.
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
Sector: 4.0x
EV/EBITDA 18.5x — sector median's (4.0x) %360 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.74x
Current ratio 0.74x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.7x
Net Borç/EBITDA 2.7x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.46x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
6.1x
Interest coverage 6.1x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+38.8
Revenue YoY %38.8 grew (2024/12) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-10.9
Net profit YoY %-10.9 declined — profitability under pressure.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 14.9M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 12.9M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
40/100
Weak robustness (40/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-40.7%
Minus %40.7 expected value (2.99) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 1.89 | P/B target: 4.60 | EV/EBITDA target: 1.26 | DCF target: 1.40
Damodaran Valuation
17/100
Low Damodaran score (17/100). DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
72/100
Low debt risk (72/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.1x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 2.7x — manageable.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 68/100 | Quality: 90/100
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
1.40
DCF (1.40) current price %72.3 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 5.04
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
A$3.5
Graham intrinsic value: A$3.5. Pahalı
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
23.9x
vs 9.0x
Sector mediannın %165 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
2.64x
vs 2.35x
Compared to sector %12 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
vs 4.0x
Compared to sector %360 higher EV/EBITDA
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%53.2
vs %80.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %53.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
APZ — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.